Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (20752)	11/27/2000 6:48:08 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<``We have a regular plan where we reduce prices on new products to stay competitive,'' Greenagel said. Sunnyvale, California-based AMD will have shipped a record 28 million PC processors by the end of the year and the market is healthy, he said.> Decent PR. Not bad!

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (20752)	11/27/2000 7:11:15 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kumar admitted INTC lost mkt shr to AMD in Sept '00 netcog.com Article: Ashok Kumar, Senior Technology Analyst at USB Piper Jaffray: INTC, AMD INTC Outlook: INTC up 0.38 at 44.31 (0.65%), down 40% from its high back in August Kumar forecasts about a 10% sequential up-tick in units, coming off a weak September quarter where units were down about 5% sequentially; 10% sequential growth in the December quarter is in-line with historical norms Recognise that overall world-wide unit growth rates slowed from about 30% in 1H to about 10% in 2H He points out that the company's official guidance calls for a 4-8% sequential up-tick in units and revenues; he sees sequentially flat average selling prices, which should translate to modestly higher than expected revenues for the quarter The company did lose market share to AMD in the September quarter; this quarter they were able to present a much more robust product offering in both desktop and mobile products, thus maintaining their market share at around 83% Pricing continues to be in a free-fall in both the 64 and 128 MB markets; pricing continues to be relatively weak given the supply overshoot relative to demand - we are going into a seasonally weak period in 1H of next year and that should keep downward pricing pressure on DRAM This is a base for both a seasonal recovery as well as a product driven recovery in 2H of next year; that should create a floor for pricing on DRAM 1H 2001 sees some tough comparisons; Ashok forecasts 10% growth in 1H '01 - FY we're looking at 15% growth on a much larger base. This year he sees 19% unit growth world-wide, and 15% next year Historically, the focus on this stock has not been valuation; the stock is off 40% from its September highs Kumar says that long term investors should start accumulating this stock at these levels; look for the stock to retest its September highs over the next 6-12 months

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (20752)	11/27/2000 7:20:53 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

andreas: That 28 million by year end strongly supports 8 to 9 million in Q4, probably closer to 9 million...Assuming $90 ASP, that translates into somewhere around $750 million in revenue before flash of $475 million and other of $25 million which totals $1250 in revenues. Yet a 5th successive record revenue quarter, if true...Of all AMD's objectives, the 8 to 9 million is the most important...Looks like once again, AMD will achieve its most important objective...and that's before cranking up the Athy/DDR combo... Just wondering how significant the P4 production problems really are...If as serious as reports of P4 lockups, in showrooms no less, might suggest, it is conceivable that there will be zero competition for the 1 gig plus Athy/DDR combo for a good part of Y2001...It is also conceivable that palomino will be added to the AMD stable of trump cards well before INTC resolves P4 production problems...or by the time INTC successfully produces a legitimate contender for the 1.2 gig Athy/DDR combo, palomino may well be sitting in AMD's inventory for just such an occasion, should it transpire...

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (20752)	11/27/2000 9:34:07 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kumar:Europe to rebound to its historical seq growth of 30% enough to offset modest declines in the Americas and non-Japan Asia Intel (INTC) 44 13/16 +7/8: The world's biggest chip maker is getting a boost today from an unexpected source. We say unexpected, because Ashok Kumar, an anlayst at USB Piper Jaffray, made a prescient call on Intel in September-- and it wasn't positive. Citing continued demand weakness, and an emerging oversupply condition that was expected to lead to a malignant pricing environment, Kumar downgraded Intel to BUY from STRONG BUY. Just a few weeks later, Intel warned that Q3 revenues would fall below expectations due to weaker than expected demand in Europe. Needless to say, Kumar's stock went up as Intel's stock went down. INTC, of course, has rebounded nicely from its recent lows as its Q3 results proved not to be as bad as the market feared, but it still remains well off its all-time high of 75 13/16 reached in August as concerns about end market demand have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Intel fueled such concerns by tempering its sales guidance, saying it expected 4-8% sequential growth in Q4. In '98 and '99, the sequential gain in Q4 revenues was 13.1% and 12.1% respectively. Despite Intel's own guidance, though, Kumar wrote in a research note today that, barring an exogenous shock, he thinks it is possible for Intel to achieve 10% sequential unit growth and that revenues should be in line with that increase. Furthermore, Kumar is projecting operating expense growth to be in-line with sales, and subsequently, thinks there should be about a penny upside to the current consensus EPS estimate of $0.42. Among the chief reasons for Kumar's positive outlook is that he expects Europe to rebound to its historical sequential growth of about 30%--enough to offset modest declines in the Americas and non-Japan Asia. Kumar is also touting Intel's decision to draw down its OEM inventory through a Dutch auction and to write down slower speed parts in an effort to alleviate any oversupply and the resultant depressed pricing environment. Strikingly, Intel-- and many of the PC makers for that matter-- haven't traded too enthusiastically today. Kumar's one mistake in the aforementioned downgrade was that he underestimated the market's reaction to Intel's likely disappointment. He said at the time that he expected INTC to pull back into the 60s... well, it pulled back into the 30s, and apparently, took some of Kumar's influence with it. As for his current call, Kumar noted that without constructive volume, INTC may be able to fill the bottom end of its gap ($50-$52) before it runs into overhead supply (the latter is technician speak for saying it isn't likely to go much further).-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (20752)	11/28/2000 3:36:56 AM
From: Goutam	Respond to of 275872

Andreas, re: quote.bloomberg.com AMD's chips are incorporated into chipsets manufactured by Taiwan's Via Technologies Inc., the world's No. 2 chipset company, Greenagel said. There's been no slowdown in demand, he said. ``Via is having the best quarter they ever had,'' Greenagel said. I found this article from the AsiaBiztech that has info supporting the AMD spoke person's assertion shown above: VIA Tech Lifts 2000 Pretax Profit Forecast a Second Time nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com [...] VIA said its second upward adjustment was based on the growing exports of its Apollo Pro133A and Apollo KT133 chipset models, which are designed to support Intel's Slot 1 platform and AMD's Athlon series. In particular, VIA's KT133 has gained a global market share of more than 80 percent. At a news conference held Nov. 22, VIA said it will begin delivering its brand name Apollo Pro266 and VIA Apollo KT266 and other new products. The high-profile chipsets are expected to continue gaining market share next year, the company said. ___________________________________________________________________ goutama