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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Buckley who wrote (35437)11/27/2000 9:19:36 PM
From: Jason W  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Mike,

After reading your SNDK comments today, I'd like to know how concerned you are about SNDK's ability to maintain margins over the next several years.

CF is clearly in a tornado as many products using CF are in tornados themselves. New products that use CF are being designed almost daily as well. However, will SNDK be able to maintain margins as price per MB of storage decreases? More precisely, do they control the IP and supply enough to become a Gorilla? If SNE's Memory Schtick goes the way of the betamax, and a couple other flash "standards" bite the dust, Gorilla-dom is a possiblity, however being a royalty play, or King is more likely.

My biggest FUD regarding my SNDK investment is that flash will be priced as a commodity down the road, as supply meets demand. Your opinion?

Finally, how much do you factor the potentially exponentially larger MMC market in cell phones will become in your decision to own SNDK? By many estimates, MMC could dwarf CF sales by 2002 or so.

Jason
PS- After reading your most recent comments, you seem to be a mix between three of my favorite things: The Buffet of tech LTBH, a pure GG'er, and the frugality of the Millionaire Next Door. The two books mentioned sit on my nightstand, and will forever.
PSS- Please don't ask me to pose my SNDK Q's to Ausdauer:-)



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (35437)11/27/2000 9:44:24 PM
From: CDMQ  Respond to of 54805
 
Another lurker portfolio and mistake

Qcom 73%
Jdsu 13%
Affx 2.9%
Tern 2%
BBH 6.9%
WIJAT hopin'

I made the mistake of not picking a monetary goal to cash in part. I was too stuck in LTB&H and ignored money management to the point of being ridiculous! I could have paid off all debt and retired easily, but no, by the time I got over the greed attack the market took its toll.
This "little lesson" fertilized the following simplistic strategy to limit loss. Sell when the stock goes down thru its 50 day MA, buy when it comes back up thru it. If the fundamentals have not changed, and it goes 50% below its 50 day MA buy more. Tern is my latest trial. I have a modification on the up side, yet to be put into practice this year!
I see most of us have avoided the deadly sin of diworsification.
Thanx all for your contributions, I've learned plenty!