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To: Maverick who wrote (20787)	11/27/2000 9:53:10 PM
From: fyodor_	Respond to of 275872

Maverick, re: SSB excerpts umm... Average AMD# (AMD-$20.81, 2S) processor prices fell by 1%. The company's latest high-end processor, the 1.5GHz Pentium 4, was trading at about $940, 15% above its $819 published list price, while the 1.4GHz part was traded at about $850, 32% above its list price of $644. ok, so that was a bit funny, but this next bit is a bit weird: P4 accelerated, Tualatin (next-gen 0.13-micron PIII) given a speed boost. Intel has been informing its customers of its new processor roadmap over the last couple of weeks, and though some of this has appeared in the trade press and some Intel alluded to on its recent webcast, we thought it is important enough to review with investors. 1) The primary point is that the P4-Wilamette (0.18-micron) will be accelerated in 2001. We had anticipated about 15-20 million units shipped next year, a number that may now double. That compares with our estimated total of 170 million processor units for Intel next year. If the 15-20 million P4s double, then the 170M figure falls to around 150 million. This would create a huge vacuum... -fyo

To: Maverick who wrote (20787)	11/27/2000 10:36:26 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

Mixed messages from Salomon Smith Barney as posted by Maverick: First they say the P4 ramp will be faster than expected: 1) The primary point is that the P4-Wilamette (0.18-micron) will be accelerated in 2001. We had anticipated about 15-20 million units shipped next year, a number that may now double. That compares with our estimated total of 170 million processor units for Intel next year. COMMENT: doesn't sound like a doubling to me. A reasonable ramp, considering that 0.13u output for P4 won't start until Q4 would be 1.5M, 2.5M, 4.5M, 8M units each quarter. Comparing that to Athlon production and P4 will be less than Athlon every quarter until the end of the year. 3) We had expected the next generation P4-Northwood (0.13 micron) to ship in volume by mid-year 2001. That now appears to have been pushed back to Q4, but will take the speed of the P4 to greater than 2GHz. COMMENT: This statement confirms that 2 GHz is the limit for 0.18u for the P4, if indeed 2GHz is even possible. No P4-0.13 until Q4 is the reason I "back-end-loaded" the production ramp above. Finally, the best news in the whole thing: Even VIA Technologies is not expected to have a P4-DDR SDRAM chipset before mid-2001. That means even 4M P4's may be impossible for the market to absorb in H1 of 2001. There simply won't be enough RDRAM to come close to that. I had thought that VIA was actually close to releasing a P4 DDR chipset. If SSB is right, that nightmare won't happen. Petz