To: long-gone who wrote (61395 ) 11/28/2000 1:11:15 AM From: Rarebird Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116761 Equity Outlook: Year end rallies have most likely already begun. Here we have a market where just about everyone is defensive, where politics has undoubtedly impacted psychology. I have no remaining downside (short-term) remaining targets; hence anything that occurs here (barring of course a full Constitutional Crisis that would have risks of pushing the Global Economy into a severe Recession or worse) would generally be a completion of an extended downside capitulation. As earnings drop, and prices fall, one should start anticipating the opposite movement in markets. Greenspan had best grasp what's at stake here real fast. To overstay officially restrictive monetary policies now is to do harm to all investors of all political and economic stripes. Permabears who proclaim the S&P's Price/Earnings ratio is still too high are not intelligently informed about history; because as earnings slow, and prices decline, of course PE ratios go up, not down. In fact, at the lows of many bear markets (outside of total Depression, where profits and prices are generally near zero) you will see many argue that stocks aren't a buy yet, because PE's are too high; well, they'll usually be highest right at the lows (this is particularly so for big-caps). That's why it's nearly impossible to correlate bottoms with PE ratios these days. It's not just about easing here. Japan lowered rates below 1%, but it meant nothing, because nobody could get a loan. The standards were too high. As this Fed expands the Money Supply (which they've only modestly done so far to reverse the contraction that inevitably ensued after the nervous build-up ahead of Y2k, which contributed to the excess speculation concurrently to the early rate hikes), and lowers rates just modestly, the loosening of the loan committee standards will help the Banks (yes, even the Bank Stock Index (BKX) eventually), and revive the Global Economy, buttressing the growing risks in Latin America (where mediocre or non-performing loan portfolios are primarily held by the New York banks), and create new credit lines for technology firms that originally depended on venture capital. The question, of course, is not if but when Greenspan will start easing. With an unemployment rate of 3.9% and wage pressures building, it would be extraordinary for the Fed to start easing here. But the Fed has no other choice unless it wants an extremely hard landing. A recession looks likely in 2001. Gold is a buy here. The Interest rate picture is turning in Gold's favor with short term rates heading lower and long term rates headed higher. Tax cuts by Bush will move long term rates higher as the surplus turns into a deficit. In short: I don't see more than a Strong Bear Market Rally into early 2001, ending sometime in mid February/early March unless Greenspan changes course very quickly. I would watch very closely how the market responds to the earnings preannouncements next month. A Friendly Fed can produce Wonders.