Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (63232)	11/28/2000 9:38:22 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

There's seasonal weakness in the first half to three weeks of December. You can check the SPX for the last five years and see the pattern of the November rally topping out by early December at latest. The strong stocks will keeep going up during that time frame, and the weak ones will bottom out by December 10-20. This could lead to the spread between OTC and NDX reapproaching 1999 levels since the Biotechs are better represented in the OTC and not the NDX.

To: High-Tech East who wrote (63232)	11/28/2000 10:21:17 AM
From: OX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

the other effect, as Les alludes to, is that, in general, MF make their distributions in December. so ppl are reluctant to buy MF's in their taxable accts prior to distribution payout.

To: High-Tech East who wrote (63232)	11/28/2000 10:47:36 AM
From: theniteowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

From Contrary Investor "Getting Down to Brass Tax" contraryinvestor.com

To: High-Tech East who wrote (63232)	11/28/2000 5:27:40 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 99985

Hi HTE, This annual event seems to happen earlier and earlier each year. Beat the rush, so to speak. However, there's still considerable tax loss selling that happens in December. It usually creates a "divergence pattern" for stocks as it occurs. What happens is that the "bad" get worse and the "good" get better. The money flows from the stocks in which losses are taken into stocks that the investors deem to be the next rising star for the coming year. It has been measurable in the past with a large number of new highs and lows on a weekly basis simultaneously. It continues usually to about the middle of December and then fades to the end of the calendar year. This year's market peculiarities seem to have changed things a bit. We'll just have to wait and see what happens next. Last week, for instance, there were just 62 new highs on the NASDAQ while there were 952 new lows. This is the market talking this time. It's probably a mix of tax loss selling and general fear. The low number of new highs indicates that the money isn't being recycled to new purchases but is being set on the fence for a while - possibly until the election is settled once and for all. Best regards, Tom "Divergence graph" aim-users.com