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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (3685)	11/28/2000 10:16:38 AM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

Chomo--I think what Carolyn and Steve were saying is this: If the 10,000 votes were randomly distributed with respect to precinct and likelihood of error(either way), then you would expect Gore to get 53% and Bush to get 47% for a net gain of 600, right? However, apparently, the 1/5 sample of votes that were counted was done in precincts that Gore won by much bigger %, say just 70 to 30 for simplicity. That should have produced 1400 for Gore and 600 for Bush, net gain of 800 for Gore(victory margin differential of 40% times 2000 counted). Yet, Gore's margin was only around 150. The claim thus is that in the other 8000 votes, they came from precincts where Bush did much better than 47%. Assuming these stratifications are correct, they have a very good point. Seems odd, but it is a point, especially if the "English as a 2nd Language voter error" issue is valid. That's why I would like to see them all counted...just to make sure. TG

To: chomolungma who wrote (3685)	11/28/2000 10:21:45 AM
From: Steve K	Respond to of 6710

Thanks for the detail but I still don't believe it. Gore picks up less than 200 votes and Bush picks up 300? That means that Bush would net 100 votes in the Miami-Dade handcount. (Remember the Gore pickup was not included in the certified vote because it was a partial count.) Statistically for Bush to pick up votes on 10,000 ballots in a county where Gore won by 6% is an impossibility. The commentator actually said (I believe) that Bush would pick up 300 more votes more than Gore would instead of 100. I agree that it does seem strange that Gore wouldn't pick up more votes than Bush in Dade County. I will see if I can find anything in writing on this matter. Regards, Steve

To: chomolungma who wrote (3685)	11/28/2000 10:49:38 AM
From: Steve K	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6710

Thanks for the detail but I still don't believe it. Gore picks up less than 200 votes and Bush picks up 300? That means that Bush would net 100 votes in the Miami-Dade handcount. (Remember the Gore pickup was not included in the certified vote because it was a partial count.) Statistically for Bush to pick up votes on 10,000 ballots in a county where Gore won by 6% is an impossibility. Chomolungma, I found a written article on the subject. I believe the author, John Fund, was the same one that was on Fox News last night. Unfortunately, the article is short on details. FWIW, here's the url: opinionjournal.com Here's the Brownstein article that is referenced in the above article: latimes.com Regards, Steve