GW:
At this phase, the bottom line questions are the important ones, as technically speaking, we can solve
VOD problems today. I will try to give my answer to your perceptive questions.
1. When will there be some sort of service readily available to most homes that is as reliable as
dial-up internet is now, that is robust enough to transfer video files (e.g., movies) not for real time
viewing, but for delayed viewing (as MP3 music is). I am assuming some sort of box like the present
TIVO will be much more in demand if it is connected to a big pipe where it can serve this
function.
There are three pieces that must come together after you have the HFC/DOCSIS infrastructure in
place:
1. The residential equipment. As you point out, a TVIO device (big fat hard disk, something like
60G will store 60 hours) is needed. A 'set' top box can do this; a PC with a fat disk and cable video
card can do this as well. You need a low cost solution ~ $400. We are almost there, but not yet.
As you note, there is a "chicken and egg" issue, as there is with HDTV- the demand won't be high
until the box price is low, and the box price won't be low until the demand is high. And of course the
confusing issue of HDTV is tangled into this as well.
2. The back end equipment and video license deals. You need video servers, billing and interactive
software- this is being developed, but again you have the chicken and egg problem. However, I
don't see a technical problem here.
3. The operations part: providing quality billing, management, administration, customer service, while
building enough revenue to cover expansion costs. I call this the 'deployment' issue. I consider
HFC/DOCSIS access to be more reliable and a lot lot more secure than dial up now; the robustness
problems with cable are in this area.
My own belief is that a PC would solve 1 since it is upgradable to HDTV with a new PCI card.
There are press releases all over the place on 2 (I posted a recent one on interactive services on this
thread recently, as did Frand, and people like Blockbuster are working with cable companies on VOD). Thus
issue 3, the deployment issue is the big one.
2. When will there be a clear consensus on what system will be the primary system in the US?
80% of the US cable companies are looking to a standards body they own - Cablelabs - to provide
guidance. My understanding is that Cablelabs have planned but not begun work on such services.
Thus you will have field trials and proprietary solutions for the next year, but you won't have clear
consensus until 2002.
3. What will it cost?
I was once a Product Manager, which I consider the hardest job in a tech enterprise. Based on my
old Product Management role, and if I were asked as PM to price it, I would instantly answer:
"What the market will bear". Then I would look at the competition (about $3.50 for a VCR rental).
I would probably consider the money and time saved by driving to be a trade off with the monthly
fee. So lets say you charge $5.00 per month for 10 'free' movies, and $3.50 per movie. This is a
pure guess, and anyone on the thread can do as well or better, I guess. The point is, it will be
competitive with other solutions.
there are some assumptions there people would argue against. Maybe demand won't take off
until people can access high quality video live, but I don't think that is so necessary. Maybe there will
be no clear consensus on systems. Maybe the cost will be excessive. What gets me is that it seems
microsoft, Sun, and the other big boys would be doing something to get this last mile problem
resolved, because once it is, the whole tech sector should benefit.
First, I think that 'real time' video means video conferencing, and it will be sold and deployed as an
independent service to VOD and interactive TV services. So that isn't a problem. And the big guys
are all involved in this business. The problem at the moment seems to be that Wall Street doesn't
believe in this stuff today.
As Mike notes recently on the thread, a field trial showed demand is there but the business case
doesn't work for VOD. As far as cost goes, I don't think the issue is the back end servers- video
servers won't be the problem. The access (HFC/DOCSIS) is in place and being deployed- there
are more than $3,000,000 as a customer base. So the big issue is the set top. I think if you could
sell a PC with TIVO like capability and cable modem and neat stuff like DVD, CD, FM radio, and
speaker interface, all for $400 or so, that used a TV screen but could handle a monitor or HDTV in
the future, you would have a best selling packet. A PC for couch potatoes.
Mr. Dell, are you listening.
Thus I conclude that for those lucky enough to have access to HFC cable, the problem is not in the
access but the PC/set top box, followed by the scheduling of deployment.
BTW, this is a great thread. Wish I could understand more of the engineering.
On the few attempts I have made to explain some technology (at far too great length) I've only
confused people, it seems. However, if you have a tech question ask- I tend to assume everyone
knows what things like HFC/DOCSIS infrastructure means unless you stop me.
In reality, your bottom line questions are what are driving the technology in any case. Keep up the
good questions. |
