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To: AMF who wrote (14413)	11/28/2000 3:19:51 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

I'm sick of "buying opportunties"! I hear you and I certainly hope I've made it clear this is no time for heroics. I'm sitting tight till I see some serious confirmation on the upside. When the market throws the baby out with the bath-water, I'm a firm believer in scooping up the howling infants when the time is right. Pat

To: AMF who wrote (14413)	11/28/2000 4:21:47 PM
From: uu	Respond to of 24042

> With lots of money on the side and the Fed set to > ease, it'll happen... Not so fast! Read the following: biz.yahoo.com

To: AMF who wrote (14413)	11/28/2000 8:09:01 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

this may prompt Fed to cut % soon: after last week big jump in crude and heating oil inventories today report has shown another big jump vs. expected small decline. Looks like there is lots of heating oil in TX ready to ship. Once oil will drop to 30$ (deflationary effect)Fed will ease. cnnfn.cnn.com Zbyslaw

To: AMF who wrote (14413)	11/28/2000 11:58:05 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

AMF, "I watched Louis Rukheyser last week saying that the Fed's last two increases have not yet worked their way into the system, so things could get worse. " There were six increases. An 'increase' takes approximately 14 months to work through the system. Pop quiz: When was the last hike? Count 14 months from then. The answer suggests that we have seen the effects of only the first 2. Even if this is too gloomy--just call me Mr. Gloom--we still have not seen the effects of the .5 hike yet. If the Fed hikes have actually hurt revenue and earnings growth--gads! so many said it could not happen!--then we still have quite a bit of pain yet to come. I agree with Pat that Greenspan will change course. The question, of course is When? His problem right now is not simple since there is inflation in the system. But even when Greenspan changes course, think what will occur. Sure there will be a 'relief rally'--a simulacrum, really. A chemera. Because his first hike will take about 14 months to work into the system. The stock market presages the business cycle by about 6 months. So the Greenspan rally is likely to fail as it is beat down by decreasing profit growth/losses that goes on for several months past his rate drop. That is the stuff of bear market bottoms. This is where the last vestages of investors' hope is dashed on the rocks of reality that earnings and valuations do count, in the end. Despite wishful thinking. Ciao, David Todtman