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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63278)	11/28/2000 4:57:14 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

'Twas a Bubble, 'Twas a Babel, 'Twas babble and baubles, yet, though in absolute dollars and inabsolute hype the great rewind might or might not fairly be called the "greatest," it hasn't yet risen/fallen to Japanese levels, or roaring '20s levels (give us a decade). Once upon a time not too long ago, don't forget, if your zaibatsu wasn't keirutsuing, you were destined for the trash heap of history, a few square feet of Tokyo real estate was more "valuable" than a block of Manhattan. Even the Nasdaq, as woeful as it looks right now, is still up about 60% from the '98 low, and around 450% from 1990. Absurd as the whole thing may have gotten (QCOM target 1000, RBAK target 752), it's still not tulips or wholly non-existent East Indian trading posts. Don't think we'll know for a year or ten whether THIS is a coffee break on a lower floor or a ledge above Hell.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63278)	11/28/2000 8:22:35 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99985

George, I do not disagree with the number under 2000 (my own "count" has been for quite some time a range of 1900 to 5300 for the next seven/ten years, now only 5 to 8 left). I just think that the "under 2000" level will not come until we are clearly into a quarter of negative growth in GDP threatening the "declaration" of a recession. The momentum in the economy, while abating is still there for this and next quarter to be positive, so at the earliest, I see 1900 in late summer early spring. I also think that is the "best case scenario (since from there we should a real barn burning rally). My worst case is that we make a lousy low here just between 2500 and 2700, rally to about 3150 or so by mid January and then fall to "only" the 2200 or so level by early march, get a fed induced major rally, but by Autumn, face the combined music of huge trade deficits, weak dollar, weakening Asian and European markets and possibly some financial crisis in corner or other of the world and get a crash from the mid 3000 or so to that 1900. Depending on various "fed stands", I get three potential lows for next year, early March, mid August and the favorite October crash. I have got no better road map right now post March, since there are too many "unknowns" in the exogenous environment. Zeev