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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brunn who wrote (40078)	11/28/2000 6:41:04 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Thanks. That's an interesting way of looking at it. I long ago decided that the highest quality stock in any sector is the safest choice, even though it is usually at a higher PE. This is a rule I follow rigidly, and it has kept me out of trouble over and over. 40 held on AMAT today, and I almost bought. But CNBC is saying the PC companies are reporting slow holiday sales. Just about everything I'm buying for my family for Christmas either has a chip in it, or cannot be used without some equipment that has chips. Palm Pilot, CDs, games, etc. I don't think market sentiment will turn until the New Year, and maybe not till March 2001. I think I'll wait and give this stock a while longer to prove support will hold. If 40 doesn't hold, then 27-30 is the next support level. Important support on the Nasdaq has been broken, no bottom in sight. The slowdown in consumer spending has just begun, and it's too early to say how long, or how deep, it will go. The full effect of the Fed rate hikes won't be felt until early-mid 2001. The reasons why the market went down in late 1998 are all different from the reasons for the late-2000 downturn, so comparisons of their severity won't tell us much, IMO.

To: brunn who wrote (40078)	11/28/2000 7:38:21 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

brunn, thank you for taking the time to explain your thoughts on the price bottom. Let's make 28 official. :) G.

To: brunn who wrote (40078)	11/28/2000 7:49:33 PM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 70976

Your observation on TER and BRKS are on the money. Interesting because TER reported lowered earnings expectations for this quarter and a BTB less than 1. CMOS reported today a good quarter with slightly lowered expectations but a BTB of above 1. Since these are both back end companies, it appears that CMOS is taking market share from some one. Supposedly their market share has increased from 8% to 13%. Its important to keep in mind that market share is measured differently by different companies. The simple act of increasing prices increases market share automatically. (example: if CMOS doubles their prices on equipment then their market share automatically doubles). Jerome