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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (3500)	11/28/2000 5:48:52 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

ADC Telecom just did. dailynews.yahoo.com

To: fedhead who wrote (3500)	11/28/2000 7:49:32 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 57684

"Assuming that the NAZDAQ run from 2800 to 5000 last year was due to the liquidity injected by the Fed, it is concievable that the NAZDAQ drops another 15 to 20 % from 2800 to the 2300 - 2500 levels. I can see that happening." Imo, this is sound thinking. If nothing else, this whole episode has taught us all anything can happen. Let's review, assuming there are some warm bodies out there with any money left, and who care and aren't reliant only on ta, not that there is anything wrong with that. About 3 years ago, the nasdaq was at ~1750, which was a new high. The economy has been very good since....blah, blah....we probably don't have to talk about demographics and tech improvements and the opening of world markets, productivity, etc. In the face of all the good things that have and are happening, I would think 20% compounding was very reasonable the last three years, which would put the nas at 3100. My own target was/is 3500. It's not my decision however, so let's say just 10% compounding over the last 3 years, the historic average, despite the clearly wonderful environment we are in. That gives us a target of 2300. 2300 is also the 1999 low I believe. 2300 is a 20% correction from the liquidity enhancement, as you say. 2300 would be a 56% index drop from the high, approximately the same % drop as the 1973-1974 crash. Finally, 2300 gets the nasdaq to about the price the fed's formula says it should be, according to Ed Yardeni's formula, and gets the nasdaq pe down to where it was back in the mid 90's. That's a lot of reasons for 2300. yuck.