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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63287)	11/28/2000 6:29:22 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

In the 1920's the fed also targeted the stock market just like today. Greenspan decided to call the stock market 'the wealth effect' but same target nonetheless. The May 50 basis point hike will likely prove to be the straw too big for the economy like the 100 basis point hike proved in August 1929. The Fed was fighting inflation instead of deflation in both scenarios. Our dollar has been way too strong, trade deficit too high. Stock compensation redemptions is a hard run on the market now. In terms of supply/demand the unregulated printing of executive and employee options turned to redemption is way too heavy for this market. This is as bad as margin in the 1920's in terms of damage to stocks. It may take longer to see similar damage, but same top heavy pressure on stocks. Again bad job by the Fed. Nasdaq 1800-2000 by May 2001.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63287)	11/28/2000 6:45:19 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 99985

george.... would you consider 25 times earnings in a recession? J

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63287)	11/28/2000 11:04:08 PM
From: $Mogul	Respond to of 99985

Absoulutly... people were actully lucky that the crash was not over a shorter period of time. Onm a % basis it looks the same as the great crash of the 30's.... people were really lucky this time. I am expecting a poor boy bounce before earnings warning season, and the FOMC will not cut % rates..sorry. Nas to 2400ish is imminent, hoping for a complete panic to 2000, as ther ehas been no paninc and vol is still light on the nas...they are doing a good job ant controlling this so far.