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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (1014)	11/28/2000 6:27:39 PM
From: Joshua Corbin	Respond to of 74559

But people don't want to face how bad things are. "A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves. "But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices." Message 14898662

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (1014)	11/28/2000 8:40:46 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Gambling now. Hopefully can finance Xmas present to self and purchased ¼ of YHOO willing to hold at $36 7/8 and sold January strike price 35 Put and January strike price 40 Call at combined premium of $10+. Intend to ride Put/Call to expiration, and hopefully sell YHOO at close to purchase price before cataclysm. Feels like the little guy in the movie “Mummy” trying to grab that last bag of treasures out of the tomb even as the music speeds up, candles flicker, and ceiling drops. Trade does not appreciably change allocations.

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (1014)	11/28/2000 9:10:57 PM
From: Gemlaoshi	Respond to of 74559

Mike, It's really not that rare to see a tanking equities market and rising commodities inflation simultaneously, because inflation is a lagging measurement. The lag time may vary, but usually runs from 12-24 months. The worst example in recent memory, of course, was the 73-74 bear market when the Fed continued to raise interest rates as the equities market continued to go into a tailspin. Paul Volker took a lot of heat for such monetary policy, but it set the stage for the real prosperity we have enjoyed for the past 25 years. IMHO, I can't see the Fed easing until they can see measurable signs that commodity and labor pressures have eased. It shouldn't last more than another 12-18 months, unless we manage to follow Japanese monetary policy and drag it out for the next 10 years!

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (1014)	11/28/2000 10:25:02 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 74559

TraderMike... The one thing to remember is that we're likely to go into recession because the Fed has put this belief into the minds of corporate leadership. By hiking the rates as high as they have, they have sent a signal to business that they want the economy to grow at a slower pace. Well, they're about to get their wish, because business is anticipating the likelihood of a recession and reducing their capital expenditures accordingly (hunkering down), thus ensuring that a recession will take place. Btw, we'll likely see continue DEFLATION as competition for available consumer dollars becomes even more fierce, thus prompting profit reductions. And if the US ecnonomy slows down to a walk, the global economy will slow to a crawl... Because at the heart of this problem is the fact that the US is the only "piston" in the global economic engine that hasn't been misfiring. If my gurus are correct, market cycles should put in a short term bottom in the first week or two of December, then a rally through first part of January, and then a final market bottom (retest?) in February. Prognosis? Nasdaq 2500 with downside possibility of 2200. But as you stated, we need a capitulation sell off and a put/call ratio above 1.0.... And then we need 3 up days to confirm we ready to rally. Regards, Ron