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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jaytee who wrote (13438)	11/28/2000 7:02:13 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14162

The market is in a serious down trend, with rotation into DRUGS , Tobacco , Health care ..( bets on BUSH ) BUT that is already priced in and it will lead to a let down for anyone going in now. Rotation never works in a down market, and a few sectors does not a market make. Even rate cuts will take time to help , if they help at all. Spam has been worried about full employment.. hmmm who will buy stocks if they wind up in an unemployment line ? Keep your powder dry , and wait for a panic to hit,, & it's coming too. I don't own anything now that don't have calls sold already..and I wouldn't buy a call on any stock in the market, if you just must play DIS buy her outright and sell some calls the day you buy her. This is time to play defense , any one who gets cocky buying right now is going to have their head served to em on a platter. Wait for a blow off down day or two when nothing at all goes up and the world looks like it's coming to an end. You want the Naz dropping over 200 pts with the curbs in on the NYSE and the VIX busting above 35 before you even think of buying. Jim PS Dis broke support at 30..while she may get a dead cat bounce it's risky. Next support is 25, and she could go as low as 20.

To: jaytee who wrote (13438)	11/28/2000 7:27:26 PM
From: Herm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14162

Hello JayTee, Let's take a look at the various profiles for some clues... MONTHLY CHART PROFILE - DIS stockcharts.com[L,A]MALLYYMY[PD20,2!C20!F][VC60][IUB14!LG!LF] Looking at the big picture over a ten year span, DIS has done great! Nothing "Micky Mouse" about the growth with DIS. It sure does look like a bottom is just around the corner. The bottom price support being the $25 or so. RSI is below 50 now and that has not occured that often with DIS. Good future prospects here. WEEKLY CHART PROFILE - DIS stockcharts.com[L,A]WALLYYMY[PD20,2!C20!F][VC60][IUB14!LG!LF] Now, here we still see the upper and lower BBs in a divergence with more downside ahead. The expo moving average in between the BBs is still negative. Again RSI below 50 and the stock has hit as low as 30 RSI only one in ten years. Once again, signs that a bottom is very near. And, the bounce in the past have been strong. Considering the DIS is part of the DOW I would expect that. DAILY CHART PROFILE - DIS stockcharts.com[L,A]DALLYYMY[PD20,2!C20!F][VC60][IUB14!LG!LF] Now, this is a clear fuller picture of which way DIS is now heading. $25 For sure! Upper BB is starting to level off. But, the lower BB and exp. moving average is still negative OBV is level. Again, I would lean towards a new bottom is coming in the not too distant future. DIS FUNDAMENTALS DIS is listed in the diversified media group as #1 in cash flow and as #2 in revenue and profit out of 13 companies. They are only exceeded by Time Warner in revenue and profit. DIS sports a 15% annual growth rate which is not bad for DOW stock that large and ranks 114 in the S&P 500. That's alot of Donald Ducks if you ask me. Offers Movies, Television and Music, Broadcasting, as owner of ABC and ESPN, and Theme Parks and Resorts, including DisneyLand and DisneyWorld. Controls INFOSEEK (Nasdaq: SEEK) and the GO Network NYSE: (DIS : $29 7/8) $62,074 million Market Cap at November 28, 2000 Ranks 114th in the Fortune 500 on Revenue & 132nd on Profit. Employs 120,000. Trades at a 38% Discount PE Multiple of 34.0 X, vs. the 54.9 X average multiple at which the Diversified Media SubIndustry is priced. The WDSAE 25s Jan02 LEAPs last @ 7 5/8 with an open interest of 6,315 are starting to look pretty good. You might be able to pick them up for a mere 6 to 6 3/4 if DIS drops to $25. Not much of a risk at those price levels.... I will place this one on my watch list since the last time I picked up DIS LEAPS when DIS was at $24 and sold them at DIS $30 for a very nice profit. I may have to repeat that play....