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Technology Stocks : Credence (CMOS): Anyone out there -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ELH1006 who wrote (453)	11/28/2000 7:04:57 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 497

Offhand your numbers look exactly right. But I'm sorry to say that nobody cares what the numbers say. Nobody cares what the financials say. All that matters is following the herd off the cliff. Signed, Ex-Accountant turning in his credentials. Back later with a more useful Psychology degree.

To: ELH1006 who wrote (453)	11/28/2000 7:12:04 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 497

Good work on the numbers. Perhaps investors will come to the conclusion that growth cannot continue at this years torrid's pace. But there is still a lot of upside to the top and bottom line for the next few quarters. The problem is that we are trying to gauge this in a terrible down market, which seems to dislike almost everything. With even a small recovery in the techs, CMOS will do very well. A very similar situation happened with Teradyne (TER). Had a great quarter but guided lower for the next quarter. The stock traded down for a few days and then recovered nicely. I hope history repeats again. Jerome

To: ELH1006 who wrote (453)	11/28/2000 7:40:46 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 497

Working capital less all debt equates to $378 million or $6.82 per share. Subtract $6.82 from today's closing price of $18.50 and you arrive at $11.68 per share for the business aspect. I have ignored the $137 million in long term investments which most likely decreases this amount further. Starting with the pretax income amount of $77.7 million, I deducted interest and other income of $4.7 million and added back the amortization charge of $4.9 million and the in-process charge of $3.5 million to arrive at $81.4 million. Apply an income tax provision of 35.25 % and you get net income of $52.7 million for the quarter on the business. Annualize to $210.8 million or $3.80 per share. This equates to a PE of 3.07. Assuming the long-term investments is a cash equivalent and the PE becomes 2.37. My god, even if the annualized net is $3.00 per share, you still get a PE of 3.9. Eddie, Great analysis of the business. They are expecting to earn 2.40 per share at the present time. That is pretty good. I don't believe CMOS is another KLIC in terms of stock trading. I have read on message boards that this will turn into another KLIC. I would say it is more like an AMAT. Just look at these comparisons (for example): KLIC EPS Sept 2000 (year)= 1.92----EPS Sept 2001=1.27 --EPS Sept 2002= $0.70 Now look at CMOS Oct1999=$0.07---Oct2000 EPS=$2.82----OCT EPS 2001=$2.40 KLIC stock has been hammered. I don't see anything like this for CMOS. We only have a slight reduction in EPS. The company insisted to an analyst that margins won't be under that much presure, given 20% being temporary employees among other things. Basically, what I got from the CC was that there is not really much of a change for significant margin pressures. Paying off debt certainly helps a little in preserve margins in a bad environment if it turns into that. Gaining market share along with a book to bill of 1 is pretty impressive. Asia is hurting them but if that market shows any uptick, CMOS will rally. Currency stabilization in that part of the world will surely help CMOS. I think they want to take a cautious approach to upcoming earnings because it makes no sense to keep a high bar of performance in this environment. The stock has already been hit so hard that any upside suprises could be catalysts for this one.