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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20382)	11/28/2000 10:52:22 PM
From: Hobie1Kenobe	Respond to of 65232

Jim - fascinating article in RealMoney.com tonite by John Roque of Arnold and S. Bleichroder comparing this NAZ bear to bear markets since 1960. Lots of charts, so it doesn't copy well, but bottom line as follows..... So does this mean Nasdaq is going to decline for the next 130-odd days before the bear market is over? Heck, no. In fact, things are so bad -- datawise and from a sentiment perspective -- that I think a rally should occur because: The 10-day moving average of put/calls has rallied back to mid-October 2000 levels. This says investors are as concerned now as they have been at any point during the Nasdaq decline. The current totals are comparable to the scenario that occurred in September-October 1998. Since 1935 there have been 28 times when November was a down month (43% or 28 of 65). Of these 28 instances, a positive December has followed a negative November 17 times (60%). On Nov. 22, Nasdaq recorded 541 new lows. This number is the highest total during the current bear market, and is the highest since 1,326 new lows were registered on Oct, 8, 1998. The combination of investor concern as reflected by the high put/call ratio, the 60% chance of an up December following a down November, and a pretty extreme number of new lows on Nasdaq suggests an upside trade for Nasdaq should occur. But any rally will be capped at the 3200 level. thestreet.com