To: Spytrdr who wrote (1474 ) 11/30/2000 10:07:23 PM From: Spytrdr Respond to we were talking about this the other day...Trader, investor, or speculator? Many self-proclaimed long term investors are in denial of the role they've played in the market over the past 2-3 yrs. They may have purchased tech bellwethers such Cisco and Sun Micro as core portfolio holdings with a long term time horizon. But, the price paid, rather than the quality of equity, made these individuals more speculator than investor. The disregard for historical valuations and the cyclicality of the markets pressed many so-called investors further into the speculative camp... But that's water under the bridge: You live, learn and hopefully realize that the only way to consistently make money in an overextended market is through trading. In order to be a successful investor, one must accumulate good companies at historically cheap prices (vs cheap relative to stock's 52-week high)... For the first time since the May lows, we are seeing levels that could be considered inexpensive. For the first time since the Oct. 1998 tech implosion is this analyst actually salivating over prices... The difference between '98 and now is that fundamentals in many of the key groups (chips, chip.equip, wireless, PC, Net infrastructure) have begun to deteriorate. While the uncertainty of being long a stock in a troubled space prevents this analyst from going into 401k mode, am optimistic about the near term opportunity for traders... The problem from an investment standpoint is that many of the tech blue chips are still expensive. More meaningful is that while the bellwethers may have 2-3 month upside of 20%, many of the more speculative stocks hold triple-digit possibilities over the same period. As a trader, one has the opportunity to participate in a major portion of breakout moves in several different stocks... Currently, seeing some appealing opportunities in the fiber-optics space, with names such as NUFO, AVCI, CORV ready to turn vertical on the first signs of a market bottom. Freefalling recent IPOs -- COSN, BLUE, SONS -- would also have a place on our trading radar screen. These are each stocks that traders are intimately familiar with, that are now trading at levels that would also foster institutional accumulation.- Damon Southward Briefing.com"
