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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Siegal who wrote (40104)	11/29/2000 8:56:06 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

In past nasdaq collapses there was a day when the market clearly reversed itself. Americans are a confident people and also cant resist a bargain. Here however, with both political uncertainty and higher interest rates, that day has yet to occur. This is reminiscent of the 1972-1982 when there was no reason to rally. Here we do have the reasons--after all even a recession will be shorlived and mild imo. But the current political situation and the failure of the Fed to moderate its anti-inflation bias have caused this brutal but controlled decline. Tomorrow is December 1. The Christmas sales situation is even more critical now than market direction. Gore may never quit so it becomes incumbant on Alan G. to say something positive. The Fed, more than any of us realize, need folks in the stores to buy goods at non-inflationary prices and Greenspan, even by saying that the slowdown will be mild and short-lived and that the fed will fight any recession when on the horizon with as much vigor as they fought inflation, will spark both consumers and investors. Forget the charts folks. On the day that happens nasdaq will begin a 500 point run. And sometime in December, the other shoe, that is Gores shoe will drop and life will return to normal.

To: Alan Siegal who wrote (40104)	11/29/2000 10:46:30 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

Nice post. I like the study that the SJ Mercury published a summary of which concluded that fund managers follow lemming tactics for self preservation. That means they sell even if they know they will under perform in the long term. Their goal is to not get fired and they get fired if their fund comes in last. This causes a crowd at the door when someone yells fire in the crowded movie theatre. This year, the shout of fire was the news that growth in telecom, Cell Phones and PCs was slowing and orders were getting pushed out. The rush for the exits makes it looks like these devices are going away, but it is really just over reaction to the lemming effect. We never can predict where the top is, some of us take profits on the way up and then put these back in on the way down when valuation starts to look reasonable again. Expecting to hit absolute tops and bottoms is pure folly. I sold some AMAT @ $68+ and nearly felt silly being so early, but now I am glad I have those funds should we get to a really low price that makes another 8x gain in a few years look possible. Likewise, I sold some LRCX way early at $28, but it feels good now with that stock at $15. I think the trick for us now is to determine just what prices will be home runs. Before, it was on price to sales for AMAT... Suggestions for time to buy? I've heard $30 as a place to start. Of course, that was for a true bear market.. if we are just having a "pause that refreshes" as the CMOS CEO said today on CNBC, then present levels are a steal. Can anyone read the future? 8)