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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (36624)	11/29/2000 8:35:07 AM
From: Debra Orlow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

this guy projects 545 on the Sox. You think 400 is doable, is that right? DMP, I don't see where this guy gets 545. The measurement is closer to 406. Debra

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (36624)	11/29/2000 8:38:43 AM
From: faro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

FWIW, Historically the NAZ is about 4.7 times the SOX.X If you take the Don's figure of 2586 for the NAZ you'll arrive at 550 points for the SOX.X which is close enough to the 545 figure this guy talks about. Faro

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (36624)	11/29/2000 9:20:56 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Even by his own measurement - "measure the triangle from the widest point, and project this distance down from the break at the base of the triangle" - he should have come up with 450, so I suspect it's a typo. He used 625 as a base, giving him 175 points down from there, based on the 800 top of the pattern. I used 600, so I got a 200-point move from there. I think he's wrong on the measurement, because the first low before the 800 peak was 600, not the 625 he used. You've always got to begin at lows or highs in a chart pattern, IMHO. They're always a reaction against the current trend, so they've got to be measured from the point where the reaction began. 400 would be my minimum downside target; descending triangles are very accurate patterns with high reliability, IMHO. That said, I'd very much like to be wrong on this; I can't see the SOX dropping another 30% without the whole market going down.