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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (35638)	11/29/2000 10:48:21 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Mucho, Marketplayer.com is a nice look at historical trading prices in comparison to the forward earnings estimates. I like it because it gives a 'visual' of the CAP which is all so important for our gorillas. Here's Cisco as an example and what the share price has traded in relationship in its history (click on the link and scroll down to the chart): marketplayer.com Keep in mind, that the CAP being awarded in later years certainly gives more of a 'visual' than in the early days when the original gorilla game and royalty games were on that Cisco eventually emerged as the leader. BB

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (35638)	11/29/2000 3:20:25 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo	Respond to of 54805

Thats because few people can estimate that far out with any precision. One of the many keys to Buffett's success is his ability to forecast FCF over a decade into the future. I wouldn't put much stock in my ability to forecast earnings into the future, but like many of the thread regulars, I'm confident that analysts' long-term forecasts are overly conservative when it comes to Gorillas. I don't know why, as I've never worked on Wall Street. I imagine that analysts generally lack the courage to project high, sustainable FCF growth rates when this flies in the face of the prevailing valuation. Presumably, upgrades, downgrades and revised projections are trailing indicators. Without knowing the facts, I'll bet that analysts are currently saying that JNPR's long-term growth rates will be very high (now that their market cap requires this), but that very few dared suggest this back when their market cap implied a more reasonable earnings rate. At any rate, Eric, I think we'd all love to hear what you're basing these projections on.