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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (41819)	11/29/2000 1:39:37 PM
From: Oblomov	Respond to of 436258

True... however, commercial paper spreads are not at the "crisis levels" that the longer-dated securities are supposedly at: federalreserve.gov My point in my previous post was that the perception is that the top in spreads has been reached due to the perception that the treasury yield curve is disinverting. Also, corporate spreads and TIPS spreads have never inverted, which is required for a yield-curve recession prediction: federalreserve.gov All this said, this doesn't mean that the perceptions that the market has are correct. The financials have been a safe haven since March. And, the perception of topping spreads has recently lifted the lend-short-borrow-long consumer finance trash. Obviously, I agree with you and PruBear on the nature of the credit bubble. I am considering shorts on FNM, FRE, CMA (low 50s), COF (high 50s), and ACF. Note that FRE has once again traveled overseas to unload their garbage: bondsonline.com Also, I occasionally trade the 10-year T-note futures. I closed a substantial long position about 30 minutes ago. I am not yet short.