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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (40130)	11/29/2000 3:35:27 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: What is your current view of wcom? At the moment, WCOM is the worst investment I have ever made, in terms of $ underwater. I intend selling for the tax loss next month, waiting 31 days, and then probably buying some 2003 LEAPs (or I may wait till the 2004s become available). Or, if I see other excellent opportunities, I may not buy back WCOM: AMAT at 30, NTAP at 40, looking at a few others. WCOM will be a survivor, and I think their business-customer-oriented fallback plan is a good one, maybe even better than Plan 1 (WCOM+MCI=selling everything to everyone). Given the valuation, I think the stock has got to be at a bottom (but I thought that at 40, and again at 30). 2001 will be a year of Darwinian Selection in the telecom industry, and the survivors will be those who can fund buildouts and service debts out of cash flow, because no one is going to be able to raise cash using debt or equity next year, not even the industry whales, and certainly not all the minnows. WCOM will not go extinct, they will survive the winnowing-out process, but they may warn again next quarter. Having done it once, and with the economy slowing, I don't see much hope of a rebound in the stock before March 2001 at the earliest. But at some point, the Street is going to say, "hey, these guys dominate several rapidly growing segments of telecom, and some of them aren't going to become commodities." At that point, the stock triples from current levels in a short time. JS@longandhurting.edu