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That's a good question. I'll take a shot at answering it, and hope that some others
can add insight (I'm pulling these numbers from a variety of sources, some are flat out guesses).
I think the place to start is to look at the sources and sizes of revenue for these two similar
companies, and their present valuation. Then try to estimate what could change in the next
year. I've listed before taxes earnings for both companies.
It's important to note that I see Intel losing share in low value markets, but gaining share in
a number of high value markets - mid and high end servers, in particular.
Intel AMD
Market Cap $229.7B $4.84B
Diluted Shares 6,719M 312M
Current Stock Price $34.13 $15.44

X86 Revenue $7,038M $625M
X86 Profit $3,457M $170M? -(Share of $270)
Other Revenue $1,693M $579M
Other Profit -$600M $100M? -(Share of $270)
Int/Cap Gains & expense $971M $3M

Intel has 47 times the market cap, 14 times the profits, and 7 times the sales of AMD.

The first thing that is obvious is that almost all that matters, especially for Intel,
are X86 CPUs. But that's actually a set of markets, so I'll try to break it down
into sectors. For estimates of the total market for next quarter, I'll start with an
estimate for this quarter of 8.5 million units at an ASP of $90 for AMD and 45 million
units at an ASP of $160 for Intel (a WAG for both companies for this quarter) then guess
at what may come during the next two quarters. Note that when I estimate both Intel
and AMD losing 5% of the enty level market to VIA, I mean that Intel goes to 85% and
AMD goes to 3%.

Sector Share Share of Sector
Sector of Market: Units/$ Intel AMD VIA SPARC/RS/Alpha
entry level 10%/1% 85% 13% 2% -
prospects for change (my guess) -5% -5% +10% -
[VIA enters the market]
Given the very low ASPs in this market, it's not very important to either Intel or AMD.

Retail Desktop low end 10%/3% 75% 24% 1% -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% - +10% -
[VIA enters the market]
VIA will take a piece of this market too, mostly in Asia. AMD's drop in platform costs
should keep it from losing share.

Retail Desktop mid range 8%/4% 70% 30% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD gains continue]
The midrange speed advantage and sharp drop in platform costs help AMD.

Retail Desktop high end 4%/8% 40% 60% - -
prospects for change (my guess) +10% -10% - -
[P4 enters the market]
GHZ sells, but AMD's lower platform costs will limit Intel gains.

Corp Desktop low end 10%/5% 90% 10% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD gains continue]
AMD is gaining respect, and its prices are lower.

Corp Desktop mid range 15%/9% 95% 5% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD gains continue]
The midrange speed advantage and sharp drop in platform costs help AMD.

Corp Desktop high end 6%/12% 99% 1% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -5% +5% - -
[AMD enters the market]
DDR, SMP, and dropping platform costs should gain AMD an entry here.

Workstations 3%/8% 100% - - -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD enters the market]
DDR, SMP, and dropping platform costs should gain AMD an entry here.
Workstations need a lot of memory, and Intel is at a major disadvange
due to its focus on Rambus.

Servers Entry Level 5%/5% 90% 3% - 7%
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD enters the market]
DDR, SMP, and dropping platform costs should gain AMD an entry here.

Servers Midrange 4%/10% 60% - - 40%
prospects for change (my guess) +10% +5% - -15%
[AMD enters the market]
This is largely the story of Microsoft getting it right with Win2K.
Intel should pick up market share while DDR, SMP, and dropping platform
costs should gain AMD an entry here.

Servers High End 3%/15% 50% - - 50%
prospects for change (my guess) +14% +1% - -15%
[AMD and Itanium enter the market]
This is largely the story of Microsoft getting it right with Win2K.
Intel should pick up some market share for that reason, and more market
share as Itanium finds a place for itself. DDR, SMP, dropping platform
costs and aversion to Intc may also gain AMD a very small entry here.

Retail Notebook entry level 8%/4% 75% 25% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD re-enters the market]
The fact that Sony came out with a K6-2 notebook and Compaqs addition of
a corporate AMD notebook indicates determination on the part of the OEMs
to keep this market contested. Whatever AMD comes up with for a mobile
Athlon will see some acceptance.

Retail Notebook mid range 2%/2% 95% 5% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD re-enters the market]
The fact that Sony came out with a K6-2 notebook indicates determination
on the part of the OEMs to keep this market contested. Whatever AMD
comes up with for a mobile Athlon will see some acceptance.

Corporate notebook mid range 8%/6% 95% 5% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -10% +10% - -
[AMD re-enters the market]
The fact that Sony came out with a K6-2 notebook indicates determination
on the part of the OEMs to keep this market contested. Whatever AMD
comes up with for a mobile Athlon will see some acceptance.

Corporate Notebook high end 4%/8% 100% 0% - -
prospects for change (my guess) -5% +5% - -
[AMD enters the market]
This one stays pretty much Intel for a while (is my guess).

I expect Intel to be hit pretty hard in its investment/interest earnings category, since
it has been pretty heavily involved in dot coms there. I also expect Intel to lose share
to AMD but gain share from SUN IBM Alpha. It will likely gain more in dollar sales and
profits from SUN etc. than it loses to AMD. Intel's biggest problem for H1 next year
is that it was including capital gains as regular earnings (as opposed to excluding them
from regular earnings). AMD, meanwhile, will have to try to get analysts to focus on its
before taxes earnings.