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To: fedhead who wrote (41986)	11/29/2000 4:16:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

well, simply put we are probably FAR from that stage. the latest reports on fund inflows suggest that there are still no net redemptions. for short term purposes i would suggest watching the Ameritrade index , the AAII poll , non reportable positioning in the futures and equity p/c ratios. those are all pretty good 'little guy' indicators for the short term. long term, it's mutual fund flows that count. at the bottom of the last true bear in the 70's, mutual fund was a dirty word, and people cursed the day they had heard of the stock market. we are not even remotely approaching that level of disenchantment. it's a very tricky bear market, as it keeps people's hopes high. note how e.g. the Dow keeps holding up...there is still for all practical purposes no sense that the recession in parts of tech could become something bigger, eventually affecting the entire economy. i think however that that's exactly what is going to happen. always keep in mind that we are on the cusp of the bust following the biggest boom ever. it will reciprocate nicely imo.