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To: sammaster who wrote (42082)11/29/2000 6:05:38 PM
From: UnBelievable  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
If Companies Rebound Quickly After The Crash The Crash Didn't Happen.

A bottom is flat and firm. Its value comes from the fact that everyone has walked around on it for a fair amount of time and based on this experience they feel that it is safe and will provide support.

One consequence of the economic contraction that I expect is that consumers and corporation's priorities and needs will change significantly. The companies to invest in are those which are best positioned to meet those needs.

We could attempt to imagine what those needs will be, and which of today's companies are most likely to be able to meet those needs, but I don't think we could do a good a job at it now as I think we well be able to later, nor do I think it is necessary. Keep in mind that if we actually went through a process that resulted in the stock market becoming sane, stock prices will generally not vary in a year as much as they do in a week now. The opportunity cost of being invested in cash until you can make a good judgement about which companies in which to invest is not going to be that significant.

Personally, I think that there will be some great investment opportunities in real estate for anyone who has cash in the next year or two. I expect houses, small apartment buildings, and small commercial buildings to be available at bargain basement prices a long time before stocks are.