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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (20834)	11/29/2000 7:32:17 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

might be two steps back, one step forward alternating with two steps up, one step back I have really bad feeling for period midJan to April I see climax of earnings implosion courtesy of Federal Reserve big strong earnings engines like fiberopt might continue but the psych impact is likely to be felt in terms of valuation eh? Jim

To: Voltaire who wrote (20834)	11/29/2000 7:43:35 PM
From: jcky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Voltaire, Well the Nasdaq is going to test that 2500-2600 level tomorrow. No big surprise. The earning's warning by both Altera and Gateway were also no big surprise. Anyone following the semiconductor industry could have seen this coming a mile away. The only question is whether we are finally going to see some form of a capitulation for this market before we start the laborious process of building a base for this damaged market (both psychologically and technically). For the past several months, the major mutual funds have been systematically selling technology stocks in steps to prevent widespread panic. I called this process a "controlled burn" selling by the major mutual fund families. I'll also bet some of the same mutual fund managers were actively selling the same technology companies while telling retail investors what "value" these companies presented while on CNBC or some other stock market talk shows to hide their true intent. And by the way, the worst of earning's disappointments aren't exactly over yet. Wait until Q1 of 2001. That's when the Big Hammer will finally fall. Though the Nasdaq may find support in the 2500-2600 level this year, next year will be a grinding market for even the most disciplined trader. If you haven't noticed by now, holding LEAP calls thru a technology bear market is great way to lose money. Regards,