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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Telemarker who wrote (80346)	11/29/2000 8:10:33 PM
From: excardog	Respond to of 95453

stories such as this lead me to believe we need to start poking some holes in other places than the Middle East: Nov. 29-MAR-- By Peter Rosenthal, BridgeNews New York--Nov. 29--Crude oil futures rose Wednesday on news that exports from Iraq are already being disrupted by Baghdad's demand that customers pay a premium for its oil directly into an account outside U.N. control. Jan crude settled up 41 cents at $34.63 per barrel. Jan Brent on London's IPE settled up 49 cents to $32.68. * * * Dec heating oil rose 81 points to $1.0318 a gallon, while Dec gasoline rallied 277 points at 90.68 cents a gallon ahead of the expiration of Dec products futures contracts on Thursday. A buyer of Iraqi crude refused to pay the 50 cents a barrel premium Tuesday and had to seek a crude cargo elsewhere, while other cargoes set to load this week have been delayed until early December, confirming fear that supplies from Iraq will be disrupted from Friday. "Most people are expecting 1 to 2 weeks, I think if it goes over that we're looking at $40 crude," said Jim Fiedler, senior vice president E.D.&F. Man International. The disruption comes despite assurances Tuesday from Iraq that supplies would not be cut off and comments earlier Wednesday that customers are willing to pay. Iraqi Oil Minister Amer Rashid said his country will sell crude oil in December only under the new price formula, and will not extend the November pricing formula to December. "I do not see any objections from buyers on the new price formula," Rashid told reporters on a visit to India. Meanwhile, data released before the market opened Wednesday showed inventories of heating oil in the stock-starved Northeast increased last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute and U.S. Department of Energy. The API also reported an unexpected 1.8-million-barrel increase in crude stocks, while the DOE showed a dip of 100,000 barrels. Yet despite increases in supplies for six consecutive weeks, heating oil stocks in the Northeast, the largest market, are entering the winter heating season at their lowest level ever, according to a DOE analyst. The persistent low supplies and forecasts for wintry weather in New England and northern mid-Atlantic states also supported heating oil Wednesday. News that Tosco Corp. is running a gasoline-producing unit at a Louisiana refinery at lower rates and will shut it for maintenance earlier than expected also aided the gains in gasoline. Finally, the market was also bouncing from sharp losses Tuesday, which saw heating oil drop 5% and crude 3% on forecasts for mild weather and mixed Iraq comments. OUTLOOK: Movement of snow into the eastern U.S. and persistent worry about Iraqi supplies may push crude prices higher Thursday. Resistance is expected at $34.90 and $35.00. The expiration of Dec product futures will also drive trading. End

To: Telemarker who wrote (80346)	11/29/2000 8:15:00 PM
From: rocklobster	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

My take is that a large degree of this OSX weakness can be attributed to election jitters... The market is discounting the fact that Gore just may pull off this election swindle, and have this election overturned..The energy sector does not like Gore... this is also why I feel the market is down more now than it would be if we had a president elect right now.. the market is discounting the worst case scenario for both candidates right now.. It has to.. Luckily for us this too will pass.. I just wish I could be cryogenically frozen for a few weeks, along with my portfolio... and woken up when things are back on track.. as I believe they will be going into next year.. best of luck to everyone... rok

To: Telemarker who wrote (80346)	11/29/2000 8:26:19 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

Why Energy is tanking? Rantings of a Madman... Why did they wait until today to really dump shares? Probably the same institutions that have been unloading since October made a big push today, hopefully culminating today. With mutual fund redemptions running high I imagine some growth funds still had energy stocks with nice gains to be realized. Maybe they are raising cash to cover redemptions and / or look for an opportunity to ride the NASDAQ back to nirvana. Any chance some of these institutional investors have a heads up on the majors' 2001 E&P budgets? Fears OPEC will not reel in production in 2001? Fears all the drilling will actually produce enough supply to overcome NG demand? i.e. NG & Crude bubble burst and the world ends again. Probably just a confluence of circumstances. My hopes are pinned on: A normal to colder than normal Winter. Extremely low NG storage levels by Spring, supply still not catching up adequately, OPEC proves master of its domain and cuts production to keep inventories under control, Slowly but surely international deepwater drilling picks up, The red menace China continues growing its insatiable thirst for oil, Sooner or later Greenspan will lower rates, Enough time to separate the believers from the non-believers.

To: Telemarker who wrote (80346)	11/29/2000 8:35:50 PM
From: que seria	Respond to of 95453

Telemarker: Sure the market is efficient--it averages the decisions of the informed with the uninformed, the fearful with the greedy, etc. One but not both may be right, or the market goes sideways. There's no foresight, whatever happens; equally astute investors are typically found on the losing side of any market bet. You decide who knows what after a long stretch of time, not one market cycle or one year. So: The market may be efficient but it's no more accurate in foretelling the future than it's ever been. I saw an anomaly buying opportunity through today with NG stocks being taken down alongside the oil stocks that the market won't commit to. But I bought tech instead, being overweighted in E&Ps. AVNX added; NTAP on the cusp. I think today's drawdown report in NG ends the bargains. Anyone who believes that product oversupply is likely next year ought to feel the need to refute (for yourself, not here!) this research: simmonsco-intl.com I can agree oil prices probably won't be at $35/barrel after recession takes its toll in '01, but I think gas has a rosy extended future. If you're a trader it may have made sense to take profits recently, but if you have an intermediate to long term view I can't see why you'd ditch the stocks that have the product (NG, maybe oil) that is in ST, IT, and LT undersupply, if you believe Simmons. Of course, the more conservative the major E&Ps are about spending and the more OSX stocks have to wait for orders, the better things get pricewise for E&Ps! IMO, of course, and warning that this comes from a guy who's managed to overweight himself in a stock that has been left out of this bull run (BKP.TO)