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Pastimes : Trading the markets..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (985)	11/30/2000 11:33:38 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4583

David, I don't believe we're far apart in our assessments. I can't imagine when the dollar will reverse it's strength with any direct move. It would take some really substantial change or collapse. Especially if the worlds markets continue to weaken together. But some mild recovery against the dollar is certainly very likely for mant currencies. Greenspan and the Clinton Admin. allowed the US economic growth and deficit to carry the worlds economies after the '98 currency and LTCM problems. They began tightening right after the 2000 bug resolved itself. What we have now is a natural slowing cycle and a cheaper bottle of expensive Champagne. In this months issue of Bloomberg's "Personal Finance" magazine p. 41 there's and interesting article on oil by David Derosa about the flawed polices of Europe and the USA on Energy Policies. Very Worthwhile Read. I'll post it if the article becomes available. One aspect...paraphrased: Don't correlate the price of oil in 1980s to the price of oil today. In 1981 the CPI stood at 78 and the price of oil at $35, today the CPI is at 172 and oil at $35. "This means that oil priced at $35 dollars a barrel in 1980 corresponds to $77 today. Clearly, what we are experiencing is in no way similar to the oil shock of the 80's." As Milton Friedman often said, "There is no cure for higher prices like higher prices."