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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Voltaire who wrote (20898)11/29/2000 10:07:05 PM
From: Dealer  Respond to of 65232
 
Tech worst may still be to come

Nasdaq falls 145.51; big firms now seen as vulnerable

By Kimberly Blanton, Globe Staff, 11/29/2000

s it almost over?

The Nasdaq Composite index lost more than 5 percent of its value yesterday, continuing a technology-stock slide that began in September and has continued relentlessly. The Nasdaq was down 145.51 points yesterday, closing at 2734.98, as giant, profitable companies such as EMC Corp. were sacrificed alongside Internet money-losers by money managers who were sharply reducing the technology holdings in their stock portfolios.

The Dow Jones industrial index was hardly ruffled by the tech-stock fallout. The index of blue-chip companies dipped 38.49 and closed at 10,507.58.

With the Nasdaq now at half the level of its mythic March high, investors might hope that the worst is over. But money managers interviewed yesterday said the Nasdaq may have farther to fall in the punishing aftermath of a wild ride that was at its most frenzied at this time last year.

''It ain't over till it's over,'' said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisers in Boston. ''There's enough reason to believe we still have downside risk left in the Nasdaq.''

Analysts said big companies that had some success in resisting the technology downdraft, such as Cisco Systems Inc., a California networking company, and EMC Corp., a Hopkinton computer-storage maker, may be increasingly vulnerable if panic spreads among investors no longer willing to watch their money drain away.

A slowing economy that may bring shrinking profits at these big companies is yet another worry for investors in the new year, analysts said.

The current investing climate has been a rude awakening for investors who had become giddy over a spectacular rise in the Nasdaq at the end of last year, which pushed the index up 86 percent in 1999 - the biggest annual gain to a major market index in history. The index soared higher in the first quarter, hitting a peak of 5048.62 in March 2000.

But, as investors lost faith in the money-losing dot-com companies that drove the index up, confidence has been shaken in other technology sectors, from personal computers and silicon chips to routers and switches.

''In the end it's growth of earnings that matters,'' said Michael Goldstein, a professor of finance at Babson College. ''These companies aren't going to grow at the levels they have in the past - Microsoft isn't, Intel isn't, and Yahoo isn't,'' he said.

To determine how low technology stocks can go, look at the numbers. Goldstein said academic studies of growth rates between 1926 and 1994 showed that small-company stocks returned, on average, about 17.4 percent per year. Based on that return, the Nasdaq, which traded around 750 at the end of 1994, would be at just below 2000 today.

The market could drop ''maybe another 800 points before it gets to where historical numbers would indicate it should be,'' he said. ''The laws of finance were not revoked when the Internet was created, and investors had ample warning.''

It is now passe to note that Internet and e-retail companies are in trouble. A growing number of these high-flying start-ups are closing down operations and laying off employees or entering bankruptcy.

Big companies such as IBM Corp., Intel Corp., and Sun Microsystems Inc. that were resistant to the tech selloff earlier this year are no longer immume. Many of these stocks reached their highs this year in September or October - long after the March high for the Nasdaq overall.

State Street Global's Riley said Cisco Systems Inc., for example, is a ''sacred cow'' that may be in jeopardy. The stock closed yesterday at $51.25 a share, down from a March high above $80.

Riley said the current price is based on estimates the company's profits will more than double in fiscal 2001, which ends next July, compared with the previous year. Growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2001 was 70 percent.

''The market thinks the estimates are justified,'' Riley said. ''Even though Cisco is a stellar and premier growth company, it's growth in earnings will probably slow, but the market is not anticipating any deceleration in growth.''

EMC is another sacred cow. Its stock yesterday fell $4.75 a share, closing at $79.50. Mark Minervini, chief investment strategist for Quantech Research Group in Connecticut, said the company has been virtually ''bulletproof'' amid technology's decline. Based on outstanding financial performance, the stock soared to a high of $103.25 in September.

''Investors are going to sell off virtually everything, and EMC looks like it's rolling over, and you can see it go down to $65 to $60,'' he predicted.

Granted, a few companies may have farther to fall. Even so, hasn't the market for tech stocks adjusted back to more realistic levels after weeks and weeks of declines?

Not yet, said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's in New York.

The Standard & Poor's technology index, at the start of the second quarter of year 2000 - soon after technology stocks had peaked - was trading at a level equal to 46 times earnings forecast for those companies over next 12 months.

The 80 technology stocks in the S&P index - unlike the Nasdaq - are earning profits or have earned them in the past.

Reality hit, and the S&P index's price-earnings ratio collapsed - along with the market - to 34 times earnings, based on Monday's market closing prices. While that is a substantial decline, it is still far higher than its P/E ratio of 20 in 1996, before the craziness began.

''You have an index that is still 50 percent'' higher than it was four or five years ago, Wyss said. ''I have to say there's still some downward potential in that sector.''



To: Voltaire who wrote (20898)11/29/2000 10:09:24 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Here's an article on Alberto Vilar -->> a most amazing Fund Manager...

worth.com

<<...0n its third anniversary last year, the Amerindo Technology Fund
received a top accolade from fund tracker Morningstar: a five-star
risk-adjusted rating. For the 12 months ended September 1999,
Amerindo's Technology D Fund reaped an astounding 254
percent gain (a month earlier, it had even hit 385 percent, the
highest annual gain ever by a mutual fund).

This recent achievement, according to Vilar, should not have
come as any surprise. "I'm an old general who's been through a
lot of wars," he says. "I've been in this game a long time and got
myself a chestful of medals. You have to be able to take a lot of
pain in this business, and believe me, the floors of my office are
red with blood. We ought to rename the company Pork Chop Hill,
'cause we had to advance a foot at a time under hostile fire."

Vilar launched Amerindo Investment Advisors in 1979, back
when Bill Gates was a 23-year-old Harvard dropout with
computer parts in his garage. "We pioneered the management
of emerging growth portfolios," Vilar is quick to claim. Right from
the start, his focus was new technology: PC manufacturers, chip
makers, and a few select software companies. As a specialist in
these relatively untested futures, Vilar says, he was among the
first to buy into Microsoft, AOL, Oracle, and Yahoo. Amerindo's
focus has always been managing money for institutional
investors, such as pension funds, and wealthy individuals. Even
today, only 10 percent of Amerindo's assets are from its mutual
funds.

"I was buying Cisco for six cents a share," Vilar boasts. But while
his foresight sounds brilliant today, it made for lean living in the
early 1980s, back when tech terminology was so new that
portals were being confused with steamship windows. "My
partner and I spent a long time living on tuna fish," Vilar recalls.
"We'd be so low on money, we'd debate things like, 'What if a
drug baron wanted us to invest $100,000 for him? Would we do
it?' I'd say absolutely not, but he'd get hesitant and say, 'Well, we
wouldn't actually have to sell the drugs."

"Untrue!" laughs Amerindo co-manager Gary Tanaka from his
London office. "We could afford spaghetti sometimes, too," he
qualifies, half seriously. In the early 1980s, Tanaka explains, not
many knew about "chips and semiconductors, so tech investing
was a very hard sell." Household words today, back then they
were new and confusing concepts. Many shops started out as
tech specialists, but it was too darn tough, so they changed their
stripes. "We stayed the course, though," Tanaka says, his voice
suddenly deepening with pride. "We got through the tough times.
We stayed with our hunches. And that's why now we're so good
at what we do."

Even beyond their longevity, Vilar and Tanaka are, by nearly any
measure, an unusual team in tech investing. Both lived through
some of the worst childhood traumas of their generation: Vilar
was exiled from his Cuban homeland and saw his father go
broke when Castro took over, and Tanaka was born in a
Japanese internment camp. But instead of reacting to the
upheavals by taking a conservative approach to the rest of their
lives, both grew into extreme risk takers.

Amerindo doesn't stake its fortune on proven companies. Rather,
it bets on finding a Microsoft before it's Microsoft. To do so,
Amerindo has lead teams of analysts in New York City and San
Francisco, but it also has analysts scattered across the country
who keep feelers out in emerging industries. "In our company,
you can live wherever you want," Vilar says. "Twenty years of
experience has shown us that living apart works much better for
intelligence gathering. Sixty percent of our ideas come from our
analysts who are out there in the field, nationwide, networking
and finding out what's new."

The "Amerindo way," according to Vilar, is to buy a stake in a
company before it's a proven moneymaker, then see it through
from inception to maturity. "A lot of people think that because
we're dealing with hot potatoes that we're buying in the morning
and selling in the evening," Vilar says. "Not true. We make our
buys, then stick with them." Among the still-private companies
that Amerindo and Vilar currently have stakes in, and single out
as great prospects, are: Loudcloud, which is Netscape
cofounder Marc Andreessen's new start-up; Tellme, which
Web-enables the telephone; CoSine, which is registered to
become public and provides network-based IP service platforms;
and ANDA Networks, also registered to become public, which is
providing a universal platform for integrated voice and data
services. Two earlier investments Vilar is particularly proud of,
Ariba and Sycamore, were selected in their prepublic days
because Amerindo had had previous experience with their top
managers. "We've had a hundredfold gain with those companies
in three years," Vilar says.

"Chances are, if you've heard of the company, we're no longer
interested," Vilar continues. Ideally, Amerindo will get involved
with a company about two years before it goes public. "I'd love to
own more Sycamore," Vilar says of the optical-networking
company. "But I bought it initially at $3. [As of September 2000, it
traded at $105.] So what do you do? That's the kind of early-in
result that leaves us scratching our heads."

Vilar expects special access to the top management of all his
holdings. For Vilar, that's one of the fundamentals of successful
trading. It's also one reason he's not terribly happy right now with
another of his early picks, Amazon. "We're pulling back for one
reason — I don't get along with the man at the top," Vilar says.
"When I stay up till late at night in Europe to call him in the
afternoon in Seattle, I expect to get through to him. Now, that may
sound a little precious, but it's not. My clients expect me to have
that kind of access and information. That's what they're trusting
me for."

Still, tech investing is undoubtedly a bumpy road, which is why
Amerindo is sometimes called "one of the most volatile funds in
the game." The Internet B2B and Health & Biotechnology funds
Amerindo launched in May 2000 are up 102 percent and 52
percent, respectively, but the tech fund, after last year's
spectacular result, is down 17.5 percent. Vilar admits he made a
mistake when he bought a large position in eToys and probably
made a mistake in timing when he bought heavily into Healtheon
(though he still likes the prospects of the company, now called
WebMD). Furniture.com has had to delay its public offering, and
Homestore.com has gone from a high of 138 to about 49. But
such is the price of pioneering. When Amerindo organized a new
B2B fund last spring despite the meltdown of the sector on the
Nasdaq, Vilar came under heavy criticism. But Amerindo stepped
in to buy during the downturn and made some
bargain-basement purchases. The day traders' distress was fast
shaping into his new meal ticket.

"Everyone says, 'Oh, you sure had your comeuppance last year,'"
Vilar says. "And I respond, 'Okay, Mr. Peanut-brain, wait and see.
If you knew the things I knew, you'd be having the best year of
your life.'"

Like the Duke of Wellington, who attended a cotillion the night
before decamping to Waterloo, Tanaka and Vilar are as genteel
at play as they are aggressive and daring at work. And in the tech
world, where youth is king and khakis are the dress code, their
manner, habits, and — in Vilar's case — ideals make them
seem like 19th-century holdovers, throwbacks to an era of
gentlemen financiers. An example: The tech market is
notoriously fast-moving, yet Vilar spends more than 100
evenings a year at classical music performances. It would gnaw
at a lesser fund manager's innards to find himself in captive
silence for four hours nearly every other evening, devoid of
phones or ticker updates, but Vilar finds it soothing. True, he will
scrawl notes on his opera program during interludes and turn
the marked-up booklet in to a secretary the next day for
transcription, but his opera evenings are not for work: He rarely
takes clients, preferring to dine and listen alone or with a few
choice friends.

His obsession with music is evident on the walls of his dining
room, where Vilar had artists work for two years to reproduce a
pair of friezes from an Austrian concert hall. He also counts
Placido Domingo among his inner circle. "Placido, his wife, and
I, when we go out, we're like the Three Musketeers," Vilar says.
The great Spanish tenor concurs. "For two or three years, I've
been meeting Alberto socially and talking seriously about opera,"
Domingo says. "He's Cuban, so we also share a love of zarzuela
[Spanish folk opera]. We've had some wonderful meals and talks
together when we meet in Salzburg."

Tanaka, for his part, works not on Wall Street nor the West Coast
but in London, close to his country home in Surrey. Unlike Bill
Gates, for instance, whose ultrawired home is a testament to his
tech-funded fortune, Tanaka spends his off-hours hanging over a
paddock gate, indulging in the ancient sport of kings:
Thoroughbred horse racing. He has such a gentleman's distaste
for glad-handing and publicity that his name is far more likely to
appear in breeding updates in the Racing Post than in the Wall
Street Journal. "I call Gary at least once a day, but we're really
operating in two different worlds," Vilar says. "He watches that
screen eight hours a day. I don't. He deals with trading, portfolio
allocation, which I have nothing to do with."

In return, client relations are left to Vilar, who makes meetings
more palatable by scheduling them to coincide with his
worldwide concert-going jaunts. (In June, for instance, Vilar
caught the Friday afternoon Concorde from New York to London
to meet with clients, then went on to St. Petersburg, Russia, for
the premiere of a new production of War and Peace before jetting
back to work in New York on Monday.)

Vilar also insists on old-world niceties like generosity, gratitude,
and decorum. When I meet with Vilar in Salzburg, the Sicilian
barber he's had for 30 years is at that moment vacationing in
Vilar's Aspen-area home. Vilar has bankrolled the barber's first
homecoming to Sicily as well as the education of his two
daughters and, this fall, the wedding of the coiffeur's eldest
daughter.

On a more spectacular scale, Vilar is almost certainly the world's
most openhanded opera patron. He has donated more than $30
million to New York City's Metropolitan Opera, $20 million to
England's Royal Opera House at Covent Garden, and $15
million to the Vilar Center for the Arts in Colorado, and, more
quietly, has dispersed six-figure gifts to small houses worldwide,
including those in Baden-Baden, Spoleto, and Chicago.

But he demands the proper show of thanks and sees nothing
wrong with having his generosity recognized by affixing his name
to the theaters of opera houses. "Some British journalist was
complaining that he's sick of seeing my name all over Covent
Garden," Vilar says, his normally sedate features twisting in
disgust. "This, this leech on society has no idea that if it weren't
for generosity, most concert halls wouldn't exist. What is wrong
with people that they don't have the manners to simply say thank
you?"

Perhaps part of Vilar's defensiveness about the subject of
gratitude stems from an insecurity many rich philanthropists
harbor: that people like them just for their deep pockets. One
friend of Vilar's seems to subscribe to the theory: "He thinks
these musicians and singers are his closest friends, but many
of them need him because of his money."

Even if it's true, however, with his love of opera so central to his
life, Vilar clearly draws tremendous satisfaction from his
pastime. At breakfast, he's busily calculating when to have lunch
so he can finish in time to make his business calls and still be
tuxedoed on schedule for that evening's concert of Haydn and
Britten symphonies. "It's those tuxedo studs that take so long,"
he complains. "You've picked out what you're wearing, haven't
you?" he asks, turning to his girlfriend. Keep in mind that the
concert, a small one barely mentioned in the Salzburg Festival's
program, is still 10 hours away...>>