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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (14461)11/29/2000 10:55:03 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24042
 
David , just recently Fed member stated that they think
economy will grow 2.7% in Q3 and 3.0% in Q4.
Also, many Fed mambers and economists will tell you that it takes 3-5 months for hike to work. After oil jump in September people in Europe stop buying PC and other goods.
At the same time last week report from Europe has shown much better sales of servers!
If you theory about 0.5% not being in the system is correct
despite what economists are saying, then Fed will cut as soon as Dec 19.
Fro the second week in US crud oil and heating oil inventories went up and in TX huge amout of heating oil is waiting for shippment.
Look for oil below 30$ by the end of Dec, and 2x0.25% cut sby Spring.
IN fall of 1998 economy reacted to % drops wthin 4 monts!!!