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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8344)	11/30/2000 12:55:57 AM
From: Rashomon	Respond to of 30051

Mishedlo: <<Even a recount of Miami Dade using a "conservative" standard -- i.e. no dimpled chads unless there is a pattern elsewhere on the ballot of dimpled chads -- would be unlikely to give the election to Gore. >> <<How the hell do you know this without a recount?>> John Fund in the Wall Street Journal's Opinionjournal.com reported on this a few days ago. It was based on statistical extrapolation on what had been recounted, and the voter registration in those precincts. So take it FWIW. However, many of the votes gained by Gore in Broward County were by dimpled ballots, and would not have been counted by the Democratic majority of election officials in Palm County. The point is that there are a range of reasonable criteria that could be selected to determine "what a vote is" that would produce a winner of either candidate. The damn thing was a draw in Florida, and the result is going to be arbitrary. Gore can finesse this only by strongly winning public opinion to prevent the Republicans from using their superior muscle in Congress and in Florida State, and in getting lucky in his draw of judges. I'd give the odds at less than 40/60 for him, but it's certainly not impossible. What hurts him most is that it's not in the best interest of the Democrats in Congress for him to win. They figure they'll take both the House and Senate in 2002 if Bush is President, with the committee seats, power, and pork that entails. Should the opinion polls start telling them that most people want Gore to concede, they'll desert him quickly. In the meanwhile, they're having fun damaging Bush and the Republican Party. As for me, I did not vote for Gore, do not like the man, and do not think he has much moral superiority over Bush in this situation. At the same time, Bush is far from the best man for the job he may soon be filling. In any case, either will soon be tacking hard toward the center because of this election, and that's likely a good thing.