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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (63382)	11/30/2000 12:26:06 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

Nine days of distribution this month... ...all at higher levels than todays close. Not Good<gg> This also excludes the down day on higher volume from the 27th, following the holiday 1/2 day trading session rally, where sellers outnumbered buyers. stockcharts.com[L,A]DACLYIMY[DA][PB50!B200!D20,2!F][VC60][IUB14!LA8,17,9!LF!LH5,5!LI5,5!LG!LC20] Williams%R on the $CPC may give the short term buy signal though as the first of the earnings warnings begin to hit the market tomorrow. A spike to 1.0 or higher could signal some real fear, and the potential for a nice short covering rally into what will probably end up as a market propping Friday session... CBOE put/call ratio closed at the high of .82 from the open of .56 cboe.com Richard Ney was wont to point out that in severe declines and bear markets, often prices will receive a prop and close higher going into the weekend to give investors the feeling of hope. This is a very real possibility here I believe as the VIX seems to be putting in a bit of a rounded top as it now rests on the support zone of 2460-2590 from July-August '99 pre blast off left shoulder on the compx. quote.yahoo.com^VIX&d=2y&y=on Like Captain Jim Sez... a spike to 35 or higher on the VIX would signal the very real possibility a bear rally short term buy point. Of course volatility should rule the roost... nothing but<g> Interestingly enough as of Sunday the 26th, the OTC hi-low bullish % on P&F was just 3% off recent lows set OCT. 13th. From a short term trading perspective this should be some kind of "heads up" This is all temporary though, as I believe we have passed both the 50% and 61.8% fib level re-tracements on the COMPX. Further decline would target the 2250 area for a 76.4% retrace to the Oct 98 lows... i'm not certain of those exact figures though, and would appreciate any help if I am incorrect. stockcharts.com[L,A]DACLYYMY[DF][PB50!B100!B200!F][VC60][IUB14!LA8,17,9!LF!LG!LC20] Will the resolution of the election picture be enough to lift the market past the ensuing warnings season, and obvious looming inflation/recession?... Or will an "I want out" sell the rally mentality grip the herd. Inquiring minds want to know<gg> Finally, csf.colorado.edu