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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: grayhairs who wrote (12933)	11/30/2000 8:05:51 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Respond to of 15703

gh, Thank you for your analysis. I hope people read it and invest with added wisdom. The prize is the same. However, the goal line to achieve the prize is a marathon not a sprint. One needs to know about where the finish line is or DNF (did not finish) can become their fate in any long distance race. Bob PS: I finished all my marathons (of course when I was younger and not graying!)

To: grayhairs who wrote (12933)	11/30/2000 9:50:55 AM
From: Check	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

Great explanation, Grayhairs! We should send a copy along to all the analysts who might be "surprised" at the "delays" later and get on BKP's case again. BTW, did you notice the So. CA Border NG price of over $18? That's up about $16/mcf from this time 2 years ago! Oil wasn't anywhere near that price!!! Also, the AGA draw was a whopping 146 BCF last week! Given that the reported period included a holiday, I can only speculate that someone must have roast a lot of turkey. Bearcatbob? <gg> Anyway, that leaves storage at 2502 BCF and the winter hasn't even officially started yet. Got any of those old dusters that we could dust off left? I could use some CF while we wait for the market to wake up. Have a great day.

To: grayhairs who wrote (12933)	12/2/2000 8:45:39 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

GH, I am taking the liberty to repost portions of your WAG projection of the BKP2 production schedule. My purpose is to look at where we are and to assess the time table for relief from my ELHFS! My current understanding is that at No. 2 we are working with LCM materials. If I remember correctly we wound up with a flex plug at No. 1 to get through this zone and that it took forever. With what looks like a "big kick" do you see this step being critical to our schedule - ie is it the step that is most difficult to predict? Also, I would appreciate any thoughts you may have as to the sequence of future events at BKP3. My suspicion is that if BKP3 proves "lively" we may have a long haul. So here is an extract from your WAG schedule(reference post 12933) - note the use of $ signs to separate: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ With the foregoing in mind, let's prepare a very rough yet aggressive schedule for first production from BKP#2: Nov 30 -------- Circulate gas kicks and get mud\well under control. Dec 1-10 ------ Deepen the well through 2nd Carneros, run final log suite, collect side wall cores, run RFT, land and cement 4-1/2" liner. Dec 11-Jan 20 - Obtain completion approval from state authority, design\fabricate\procure tubing conveyed perforating gun, Xmas, complete well (clean out cement to TD, run correlation logs, land perforating gun, production packer, tubulars, install wellhead, etc.), and perforate. Jan 21-27 ----- Flow test well. Jan 28-Feb 10 - Monitor bottomhole reservoir pressure after shut in and retrieve pressure recorders. Feb 10-20 ----- Analyze flow data. Feb 21-28 ----- Finalize facility design and obtain JV approval. Mar 1-May 15 -- Permitting, surveying, pipelining, lease preparation, footings and foundations, preliminary construction, and procurement of long lead items. May 15-31 ----- Final construction and assembly, commissioning and testing. June 1 -------- First production. Bob, the above schedule is just my WAG. It totally ignores both Murphy's Law and the now famous RO3 !!!! It will certainly be inaccurate in many aspects !!!! But, hopefully it will help others realize that early January production from BKP#2 is not too realistic. Analysts and shareholders that project\expect cash flow from this well before June-July, 2001 will surely be disappointed. JMHOBWDIK. Have a good one. Later, grayhairs