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To: Perspective who wrote (42272)	11/30/2000 2:17:45 AM
From: nextrade!	Respond to of 436258

Thank you for sharing your thoughts here, a well written, and valuable post. Regards, nextrade!

To: Perspective who wrote (42272)	11/30/2000 2:49:39 AM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 436258

Mighty fine post.

To: Perspective who wrote (42272)	11/30/2000 8:54:55 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

agreed. modern-day hubris about our ability to 'control' such events will be put to a severe test...

To: Perspective who wrote (42272)	11/30/2000 9:25:36 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

<I, too, am not ruling out the possibility of a 1929-34 style wipeout. I know we think we are far more clever than our predecessors, but I think that may amount to nothing more than supreme arrogance. Our great-grandfathers fathers weren't idiots; they didn't produce the Depression because they wanted to. The excesses in the stock market of their day provide a snapshot for the psychological state of the financial system at that instant when the unthinkable began. Our own Nasdaq at the beginning of the year is likewise a snapshot of the unprecedented lunacy that prevailed at that instant. Our own confidence in the present day systems and the huge technological advances that have occured in the interim suggest that we won't have to worry about selling apples on street corners to survive. However, the relative damage to the equities markets could be nearly as bad, or maybe even worse. We certainly jumped off the high dive on this one. The explosion of debt and erosion of risk premiums in securities is unprecedented, and the full effects of transferring and disguising risk in the credit markets have never been tested in a recession.> Thanks, DAK

To: Perspective who wrote (42272)	12/1/2000 8:36:05 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 436258

Hi bobcor, Thanks for that well considered discussion of the macroeconomic situation. I was particularly struck by this passage: My long-term target for "completion" of this bear market is 1700 on Naz, around March, 2002, with a sequence of equal or slightly lower lows in 2006 and 2010. Why? Because secular bears have usually lasted that long and dropped similar amounts, and left financial hangovers that lasted for years. I would refer you to this pair of articles that discuss exactly the same 4 year cycle that you've described, as applied to the Asian tigers, Japan, Inc. and Mexico: Message 14905387 Message 14905409 Regards, Ray