Speak of bozo and amazon. This guy trashes em pretty good:-)
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MAVERICKTRADER.COM OFFICIAL NEWSLETTER RELEASE
November 28, 2000
We pride ourselves on our ability to find hidden stock values. You
know,
stuff that you don’t get with other services. This morning, we believe
we
have a real undiscovered “gem”!
There’s a company you may not know about called, Amazon.Com. They sell
things from a “website”.
Our call today: WE BELIEVE AMAZON.COM STOCK IS WORTHLESS.
No, really. We think that Amazon.Com (Nasdaq:AMZN) is worth LESS than
ZERO.
We dug deep and checked the numbers. Our call on Amazon.Com is based on
(among other reasons) the following data:
1. Amazon.Com keeps continues to lose money. Duh. How many more
quarters do investors need before they ALL throw in the towel? We
suspect
not many.
2. Amazon.Com has a NEGATIVE “book value”. This means, basically,
that if you sold off all Amazon.Com’s assets, and subtracted their debt,
the stock value would be LESS THAN ZERO.
3. Jeff Bezos looks like a deer caught in the headlights of an
oncoming truck. Seriously, have you seen him in interviews recently?
Whoa. A couple weeks ago, Mark Haynes (CNBC Anchor) hammered him in an
interview. Mark asked him about comments made to investors regarding
Amazon.Com and its business model. Jeff fished for answers. Jeff’s
eyes
got all “bugged out”. Jeff fudged the truth, and said that Amazon.Com
is
not really a “virtual company”. HUH? As Mark pointed out, AIN’T THAT
THE
POINT? Jeff, needs to either drop the caffeine, or start to be more
honest. We just think his demeanor should frighten Amazon.Com
shareholders. Not exactly the picture of a guy in control.
4. The percent of shares “short” is 25%. Yep, you read that right.
25%. That’s a lot. We expect more to pile on to that number soon.
5. Amazon.Com spends billions to generate “eyeballs”. Anyone in
business knows that it doesn’t matter who comes in your front door.
What
matters is how many times your cash register rings with a profitable
cash
sale. Amazon.Com spent a ton of cash to generate so-called customers.
But failed to successfully generate profitable sales.
6. Warehouses jammed with unsold stuff. Take a second to remember
that Amazon.Com was supposed to be a “virtual storefront”. You know, no
need for big bulky warehouses – that was the old way. Well, guess what?
Come to find out, that “old way” is the best that Jeff Bezos could come
up
with.
7. Amazon’s own creditors continue to lower their credit rating.
Why? Amazon.Com’s “burn rate” seems to exceed their long term ability
to
generate new income.
8. Oh yeah. AMAZON KEEPS LOSING MONEY. That still counts, right?
Amazon.Com is broke. Efforts are made now to increase the customer
base.
More sites are online now with the “Amazon.Com” logo. But, they still
can’t get past that pesky idea: YOU GOTTA MAKE MONEY.
We expect that Amazon holds nice volatility for investors ON THE SHORT
SIDE. Unless Amazon.Com drastically changes its business model, we
believe that the ride to zero is underway.
Hey, all this is our opinion, clearly. Before Amazon.Com hits zero,
there
are plenty of nutty ways that the stock price could get a “boost” on
Wall
Street. You know, like some “analyst” “upgrading” Amazon.Com. Or, some
group of starstruck investors that dump a few billion into the failing
business. But, our opinion about the stock (absent some miraculous
change
to the business model) remains that there is NO value to Amazon.Com.
If you own AMZN, strap yourself in.
Here is where we believe that Amazon.Com made some key mistakes:
1. They sell CDs. CD sales drop across the board. Too much
competition. Too much Napster. Too much money to lose.
2. They use low price as the reason to shop at Amazon. Folks,
someone needs to tell Jeff Bezos that NO ONE CARES how many people
bought
a book or two at Amazon.Com. Investors want to know HOW MUCH MONEY does
Amazon.Com make. Gee whiz. Ask any kid that sells lemonade on a street
corner this question: “How many cups of lemonade can you give away for
free before you have to close?” We bet that most 10 year olds could get
it right. For Amazon.Com to make money, they MUST begin to tout
convenience, service, or selection, as the reason to shop at their
portal. Whoever told Jeff Bezos that cheap prices was the way,
apparently
forgot some key facts. You know, like, “it costs us money to ship this
stuff. That will take some of our profits.” Or, “we pay people
commissions from our sales, and that will eat more of our profits.”
OR, “there are people online that will sell for LESS. Price wars tend
to
cut into profits, too.”
3. They did not open up REAL WORLD “bricks and mortar” storefronts.
See, it ain’t real glamorous, but it WORKS. Look at Barnes and Noble,
for
a lesson in what works. By the way, Barnes and Noble’s web arm is in
the
doldrums, JUST LIKE AMAZON.COM.
These are a few ways that we believe Amazon.Com had a chance turn itself
around.
Coming soon to a mall near you, “Amazon.Com”?
The reality is that, in our opinion, there really is NO viable business
at
Amazon.Com. There is no way we would put a penny into Amazon.Com stock. |
