Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (80376)	11/30/2000 11:01:52 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95453

Big, $5 gas predicted by Verleger [you know this guy?] >``We're not quite in an energy crisis, but one is developing and I think this one's going to last longer and it's going to be a lot more difficult to resolve,'' said Philip Verleger Jr., who frequently testifies before Congress on energy issues.< cgi.mercurycenter.com Gottfried

To: Big Dog who wrote (80376)	11/30/2000 12:20:55 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Dog - I think many investors here have the same problem... They are blindly focusing on the very attractive underlying fundamentals at this "mature" point in this cycle. At this "mature" point in the cycle; where the "casual" Institutional energy investors traditionally exit - ie: when the consensus for the peak for commodity prices is reached - one needs to "trade the traders" and not trade the fundamentals. It does NOT matter what "is" here in the Oilpatch; but instead it matters what "They" (the majority on the Street) think it is... It doesn't matter if Simmons & Co and all of us here; see and know that this all will ultimately wash out and a new fundamentally supported upcyle leg will emerge; if the vast majority of the Street doesn't agree. In the stock market being "right" isn't as important as being on the "right side" ...be they in reality; right, or wrong. Right now; the vast majority of the market may well be "WRONG" about the fundamentals for Crude Oil and Natural Gas; along with Cap Ex spending; but that does NOT matter for us - if they continue to vote with their feet & their wallets here... as when they "sell & exit" - they become right. One can not sit here on the "fundamentals" of being right; one must step aside (take ones chips off the table) and let the herd exit... if the herd is wrong; we re-enter at OSX 80 and at the least - probably get another Spring 2001 rally thru OSX 120+. At the best - we start part deux of a multi-year expansion cycle. But, to sit here and fight the herd; one is only going to get trampled... TRADE THE TRADERS - NOT THE FUNDAMENTALS; IN MATURE POINTS OF THE CYCLE... We need to prepare for these mid-cycle shakeout corrections; we also need to realize that O&G has not been, is not here and may never be; a true - flight to safety haven in a negative market environment and that the Oilpatch not only can not go against the negative market grain; but it can not even tread water... I see no reason for anyone to be more than 30-50%ish invested in Oils here... and I personally am waiting for an OSX 80-something re-entry opp; unless Saddam or the electorate have something very surprising to add here. Earnings are coming down, complete industry sectors in the broad market are still imploding; selling - begets selling and nothing points to the broad market being cheap on ANY historic basis - none. WE ARE STILL NOT CHEAP - in this market; and no bottom will be seen without a real capitulation; which we haven't seen; or the return to historically normal, or attractive market multiples - of which; we "aint" even close yet... I also think the Oil Majors and many Institutional Investors are going to take a "Soft Landing" wait & see attitude for a few quarters... the pause that refreshes - may take some time here. A pause that refreshes; is not for margining, not for adding to on weakness and imho; not even for "holding" thru; it's for hopefully recognizing early, or at least in it's initial stages for what it is - and then it's for taking chips (significant chips) off the table and letting it work its way out... Patience AND Cash are truly King here. ... Ohhhh the humanity ~ PS: ... a Kuggerand a day, will keep the Bear away ~