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To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (80379)	11/30/2000 11:06:32 AM
From: diana g	Respond to of 95453

Hi Sharp, you wrote: <<<"...It looks to me like we are in a serious bind regardless of how cold this winter is. I'm holding out for a last hurrah in E&P's...." I agree. Timing is the question, imho. The Market will have one eye on Spring even as supplies decline to dangerously low levels. Also, when the techs turn up, money may flow that way out of E&Ps, taking NG profits sooner than if attractive opportunities weren't presenting themselves. Other opinions? regards, diana

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (80379)	11/30/2000 11:21:09 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

S.E.O.D. IMO wise words from Don Sew about investing: Though he uses NASDAQ as his focus, the conceptual framework can be applied to all markets. "...want to mention how some were so definite that we hit the MAIN BOTTOM when the NDX was around 3000, and lets not forget those who were so definite about a MAIN BOTTOM around 3500 and 4000. I mention it not point fingers at those who were wrong, but to illustrate that it may not be wise to be so firm on ones opinion and to show how hard it is to pick the bottom, as it was in picking the top. Keeping it simple, the NAZ/NDX got LOWER LOWs and LOWER HIGHs which is a downtrend. Where the exact MAIN BOTTOM is, I sure dont know - but we are in a CLEAR DOWNTREND. As it was the similar in reverse for calling the TOP, only now are many excepting that fact that the NAZ/NDX is in a BEAR PHASE with less hope of setting new highs immediately. Remember that the NDX was at 4000 in early SEPT and there was still alot of talk of 4500-5000/new highs by the end of the year. So it took about a 50% decline for many to accept the belief of a BEAR PHASE. In fairness to the BULLs the reverse also occured trying to nail the TOP. I mention this to further illustrate how hard it is to nail the MAIN BOTTOM, as it was the MAIN TOP. If it is so hard to nail the MAIN TOPs and BOTTOMs - why do it? Maybe it better to adjust ones style to adapt to the market dynamics, rather than force the market to do what one wants it to do. The other strategy is to sit on the sidelines until the market moves in a manner which one is more comfortable with." Although my holding periods and style are very different from Don's, the rationale of trend following he (in part) presents is common among TA and tape readers like me. Just thought it was worth sharing with the thread. Isopatch