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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (21163)	11/30/2000 1:16:03 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 275872

RE:"But where's the analogy to the election mess? It has no effect on the economy, only on the psychology of the people. And I think you overestimate its effects. Why would someone wait to buy e.g. a new Athlon because Gore contested the election" I'm not sure but didn't people in Europe, particularly in France become enamored with the trucker/gas/blockade for a few weeks? The effects are temporary. Trouble is that this is the major buying season for computers...hardly a time when we need people scared to buy a computer because ther stocks are down and the R word looms. It's not Gore per se but the uncertainty of the effect of the election that has the markets on the run, not that they wouldn't be on the run anyway. This may not sound logical to you but it is not in conflict with Wall Street reactions in the past. It makes no sense to a lot of people that AMD is selling at 6 times earnings but typically PE ratios contract in recessions/bear markets... Jim

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (21163)	11/30/2000 1:56:29 PM
From: aburner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Andreas, re: US economy is slowing down and it has nothing to do with Gore or Bush. The important question should be: How will AMD do in such an environment? This is what Banc of America thinks how AMD will do next year: -------------------- Advanced Micro 2001 EPS Estimate Cut at Banc of America 11/30/00 8:51:00 AM Source: Bloomberg News URL: cnetinvestor.com Princeton, New Jersey, Nov. 30 (Bloomberg Data) -- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) was maintained ''market perform'' by analyst Richard L Whittington at Banc of America Securities. Earnings estimates: Period Previous estimate New estimate per share (USD) FY 2001 2.37 1.80 -------------------- Ouch! ABurner :(

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (21163)	11/30/2000 5:20:34 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Andreas, I think there is some parallel. Shopping means spending time shopping. So shopping is dependent on time. If you people spend an extra 1 hour per day watching TV, part of that hour will come from the time to shop. I think this is one of the reasons of the recession during Iraq war. People were glued to TV. And the recession is a self fulfilling prophecy. People buy less because of lack of time, the retail sales drop causing bad earnings, all the talk is about the recession and because of all this talk people postpone non-essensial purchases (because the recession is coming). We may have a smaller version of this scenario at play right now. This is on top of the minor slow down that we were experiencing regardless of the election. Joe

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (21163)	11/30/2000 11:46:51 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 275872

This just makes no sense. We should face the reality: US economy is slowing down and it has nothing to do with Gore or Bush. The important question should be: How will AMD do in such an environment? Is there still enough room to grow? What about ASPs? These are the factors that will effect AMD's future stock price in the long run. Andreas, I think AMD will maintain its current price by stealing market share. I also think we forget that the chip industry is very cyclical. When I first started investing in '97 and '98, I didn't know a chip stock from Alcoa. And my first impression was that they were so cheap...NSM was around $10, AMD at $18, ALTR in the high 20's etc. Nothing surprised me more when these stocks took off and ran as high as they did.....and they will be up that high again. The chip stocks are the core of the tech industry and play too big a role for it to be otherwise. All the seasoned traders know this and they play the game very well. When SSB warned back in early summer, the seasoned traders were the first out.....and they will be the first back in when the new cycle starts. The object in all of this is to make $$$ and not get burnt. ted