Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sirinam who wrote (36837)	11/30/2000 3:05:37 PM
From: sirinam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

I guess it is tough to get that real capitulation today, maybe because of this call from Briefing.com yesterday night. I hate when so called independant financial websites make a call before the real thing (capitulation) happen: <<With the Nasdaq having fallen into our target range of 2660-2600, the time has come to start focusing on the upside. Could the sector remain on the defensive a little while longer? Sure. But a number of factors are coming together to suggest that the Nasdaq is poised for a very nice short-term rally. They are: Barring a huge day tomorrow, the Nasdaq will end November in the red... This will be only the third time in the last decade that the Nasdaq Composite has fallen for three consecutive months... The most recent example was earlier this year, when the index fell in March, April and May, only to rally by nearly 17% in June... You have to go all the way back to 1990 for the previous 3-month losing streak... After slumping during the Aug-October period, the Nasdaq jumped 9% in November of 1990, and proceeded to rally for another six straight months... Though not a large sample size, Briefing.com expects pattern to hold. Presidential election will be decided. Anyone who reads this page regularly knows that Briefing.com has argued that the election uncertainty played a very secondary role in the current retreat... As such we don't expect it to be a major factor behind the recovery either... Nevertheless, it will coincide with the rebound and almost certainly be given (too much) credit for triggering the rally. FOMC Meeting: This analyst expects Fed to adopt a neutral stance at its next meeting. Traders likely to bid stocks up in anticipation of such, as it would pave road for an easing in early 2001. Santa Claus Rally: December is often a good month for stocks, as investors begin to buy in anticipation of the January effect -- stocks rally in the first part of the year as bonus checks and 401k money finds its way into market. Cash: Money managers are loaded with cash... Favorable seasonals, resolution to election fiasco, more accommodating Fed and oversold technicals - especially in the tech sector - compelling reasons to put at least some of that money to work. With the ingredients in place for a strong short-term rally, look for the Nasdaq to run to the 3100 to 3300 area, or roughly 15% to 23% above current levels. Stocks that are likely to lead the recovery include most of those momentum names that have been crushed in recent weeks... Stocks such as Juniper (JNPR 115 3/4 +9 11/16), i2 Tech (ITWO 90 7/16 -11 1/4), Ariba (ARBA 57 7/8 -3 7/8), JDS/Uniphase (JDSU 57 1/2 -2 19/32), Sun Microsystems (SUNW 79 3/4 -1 1/2), EMC (EMC 73 3/16 -6 5/16), Extreme (EXTR 57 1/4 -9 7/16), PMC-Sierra (PMCS 103 33/64 +6 41/64), Ciena (CIEN 73 -11), etc. However, traders should not lose sight of fact that most of these stocks can rally a long way and still not alter their underlying bearish trends... Take ITWO for example... Stock could bounce all the way back to the 125-130 area and still not alter its bear trend. In other words until we get a clearer sense of the economic/earnings climate, Briefing.com would view these former high-flyers more as trading vehicles.>> Same from Bullchart.com calling Thursday (today) the big day. It killed the anxiety and give hope. Tks Don for keeping posting your updates. Sirinam