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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (21247)	11/30/2000 6:30:18 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Vol - My guess is that we are at or near bottom now. Why:- 1. Apparently a number of big market on close buy orders this evening. 2. I don't think we can assume that the Fed will ease and that we all get a chance to then go out and buy stock at cheap prices. No, my guess is that the economy will take six months or so to recuperate and repair the damage G has done with over tightening but the minute he eases up the market will react and I have a suspicion that we will see one lowring in December. It amy not look like it now but if John Connnors is right we are looking at an incipient melt down of the world economy. Mr G knows that if that is the case then it won't be the NAZ that takes the brunt, it will be the Dow and that is whole different ball game. There have been some straws in the wind today with the St Louis Fed Govenor and MSFT. The Dow is next on the hit list. Wait for the Dow warnings. Do you think PG is going to make its expectations. How about many of the World Wide big name Dow stocks. MSFT doesn't kid around if they say there has been a 'dramatic fall off' then thats what there has been and they said around the World. No, my guess is that the awful reality of what he has done is just beginning to dawn on the FED and it will make its presence known almost daily from now on. OUr great NAZ stocks are probably going to be better off than their Dow bretheren. That will be fun to watch when the comentator community have to cope with explaining how some value stocks aren't such good value in a serious global recession. So G will panic and the although the economy will continue to contract for a couple of qtrs the market will anticpate the rate lowerings and will recover. IE its no use wating till you get earning announcments that show growth has returned. You won't get the chance to get in. 3. There have now been a whole bunch of comentators on CNBC today sayin that Mr G needs to ease and quickly. Not that CNBC is the oracle but it is a good cross secion of opinion and teh strength of some of the opinion had an air of depseration about it. Mr G will be getting hte message. 4. Looks like oil price has peaked and is going to reduce. 5. The end of the election IS getting nearer to finality and it is only a couple of weeks away at worst. 6. Some favourite NAZ stocks are beginning to look cheap, very cheap and there must be a record amount of cash piling up on the sideline today. It will go into equities. Thats it, my best guess. Sorry for the length but I thoughjt it worthwhile. Best regards, L