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To: posthumousone who wrote (42667)	11/30/2000 5:59:57 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 436258

Well, where did that cash come from: what part of it may need to go to pay off debts? The rising market was definitely partailly a result of increased investments by individuals through pension funds and this will continue for a while, yes, but probably overplayed as the real source of rising equity valuations.

To: posthumousone who wrote (42667)	11/30/2000 6:20:59 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

there's a ton of money that just went poof. There are many company's that have borrowed heavily to buy their shares at sky high prices, MUFUs may need some cash for redemptions that are coming, some may have to sell because they don't have enough to maintain margin positions, some investors have never quite understood that if you can't afford to lose it ... some of that cash sitting around may be pulled for more immediate needs when the liklihood of quick gains disappears

To: posthumousone who wrote (42667)	11/30/2000 6:42:24 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i have actually commented on this earlier...in other historic bear markets, cash positions got a lot higher, namely to 12% and more. this refers to TRUE bears, not declines of a few weeks like in '98. still, the high cash positions at the mufus is the best of her arguments. imo this cash is likely to be deployed once good news in any shape or form hits us, like e.g. a resolution to the election mess. probably will result in a huge one-day bounce. however, one has to keep in mind that we have still not seen redemptions hit. the public is fickle..while generally inclined to sit tight during bears and suffer through them, there's also this tendency to panic at certain choice moments. it is conceivable imo that we could see a few days of heavy redemptions that lead to even more cash being raised. mind you, i'm not saying it WILL happen, only that it potentially could. also, the biggest fund of them all, Fido's Magellan, holds almost no cash, generally only slightly above 2% of assets. its managers like to rotate, and i think their activities were behind all that crazy rotation we've seen this year. another, more general rebuttal would be the Japanese bear...that's the classic bear market with the biggest amount of sidelines cash ever seen hibernating in almost zero interest deposits right next to it. what i'm saying is sidelined cash has no obligation to go anywhere. it might be quite comfortable with staying on the sidelines. at some point it will find its way back into the market...and then we'll get another nice bear rally to go medieval on. fact is, signs of distribution continue to proliferate. and Harpo had a year end target of 1575 on the SnP, and i doubt very much that that's going to be hit. she only issued it two or three weeks ago. so forget about her 12-month target...we're looking at a propaganda exercise that aims to stabilize the market. but as always, fighting the primary trend is not a good idea.

To: posthumousone who wrote (42667)	11/30/2000 9:19:17 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 436258

Her Claims About The Current Situation May Be True But They Do Not Support The Forecast of Rising Stock Prices. That valuations are the most appealing they have been all year says nothing about whether they justify investing. Cash is building in portfolios because people are learning that it has a much better yield than stocks. At best it is very fuzzy logic and at worst it is an attempt to defraud.

To: posthumousone who wrote (42667)	11/30/2000 9:33:21 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<What ABBY Says:Indications that cash is building in portfolios, and that valuations are the most appealing they have been all year, support the forecast of rising stock prices,'' Cohen said in a note to clients.>>>>>>>>>> I guarantee you that her assertions are 100% true. Cash IS building in portfolios, and valuations ARE more appealing than they've been in a year. That doesn't mean that cash is back to normal levels, or that valuations are realistic. They're just comparatively better. I can also assure you that the same assertions hold true in EVERY bear market. Bear markets happen BECAUSE marginal cash flows are directed away from stocks and into safer havens, and valuations decline steadily until they actually reach undervaluation. Believe it or not, you may one day be able to buy MSFT or INTC with a PE that implies an earnings yield on par with a treasury bond. Imagine that! BC