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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (21223)	12/1/2000 12:26:58 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Jozeph, another way AMD can meet earnings estimates is that, if the share price is below 18.5, the outstanding shares in the financial reports drop significantly. YUK, I'd rather do the old fashioned way, by growing. Petz

To: Joe NYC who wrote (21223)	12/1/2000 12:49:46 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe, <I think the AMD guidance (and EPS estimates) are very conservative, so there is some room for AMD to screw up or for the demand not to materialize while AMD would still meet the estimates. > True. AMD depends quite a bit on consumer sales and Gateway is a rather large customer so the odds are AMD will take a growth hit this quarter or the next to makeup for Gateway softness. My gut says this quarter will be fine (relative to guidance) but the next one can be tough. <If we get a warning from AMD despite all of this, then the share price is justified.> Not sure how you come to the conclusion. Revenues from 99 to 00 will grow from <$3B to ~$4.5B. Profits will grow from ~($300M) to ~$1B. Both revenues and profits should be up significantly for 2001 even if the market share stays stagnant and ASPs erode by 10% (assuming flash remains flat). The current market cap is ~5B. How do you figure the stock price is justified? Flash alone should fetch north of $1.5B for 2001 and have profit of about $750M. Chuck