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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (346)	11/30/2000 7:47:37 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 12411

Hi Patrick, Like Keynes before me, I feel very strongly that animal spirits move markets. Here at SI I've been distracted until it became obvious to me a couple days ago that Gore will not be calling 1600 Pennsylvania home anytime soon. This is far more beneficial for the market recovery, inasmuch as SI runs about 6:1 in the favor of Dubya, and this will, IMHO, have a substantial impact on the mood of Mr. Market. Just a guess. I'll ride it up same as anyone else but I don't think it changes anything downstream. We are now back to Fed watch, and the bond and futures markets are now starting to price in a cut in the Discount and Fed Funds rates, and probably sooner rather than later. Now that it appears that we are "on plan" with GDP growth, it would appear to this observer that the balance of risk has shifted toward recession rather than a ramp of inflation. The fact that $3.26Trillion, with a T, has been hoovered out of the NAZ in the last 8 months will go a long way to curb inflationary money chasing real estate and real economy goods. Anyway, gotta get back to my tea leaves, hmmmm Dragon Claw Darjeeling or Bai Hao Oolong? So many choices, so little time. -Ray