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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave who wrote (53689)	11/30/2000 7:26:43 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

I guess CFO Connors did say MSFT is on track for 6.8B and 49c at CSFB conference today. So why did the market not digest these comments and focus only on Gateway? == JOHN CONNORS: Yeah, you know, we don’t compare ourselves directly to Intel in terms of what our growth expectations are versus theirs, in part because their growth includes a number of businesses we’re not in, and the comparables year over year aren’t the same. When we reset expectations last April for our business generally and PC demand specifically, we estimated that PC demand worldwide would come in at about 12 to 15 percent. That was I think probably anywhere from 3 to 5 percent lower than the industry was expecting and that others had forecast. I think our expectations were probably closer to reality for the first three months of the year. So far for the quarter we’re in it looks like we’re on track. The biggest wildcard between now and the end of December is really holiday demand for consumer PCs. The business PC demand appears to be about where we thought. The real wildcard is, is there an effect on consumers from the stock market correction, from the general notion that we could have a soft or hard landing, and do they reduce their spend after the Thanksgiving season going into the holiday season for personal computers principally at retail or buying online from consumers. So as of now we have not changed our expectations for PC growth and part of what helps our growth comparables year over year are a year ago the December quarter was a very strong consumer quarter and multinationals picked up a big part of that share. This year we anticipate the business PC market to be a little more healthy than it was a year ago -- last December it actually contracted. And on the business PC side we get higher average revenue per PC than we do from consumer. So taking those mixes into effect, as of today we have not adjusted what we anticipate our growth to be.

To: Dave who wrote (53689)	11/30/2000 11:26:34 PM
From: Milan Shah	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

If low PE-after-cash for a growing tech company is what you are after, buy AAPL. Aha, great minds think alike (hope you were not being facetious). I have been following Apple for the reasons you cite - not just low PE, but also other fundamentals (LT debt, product cycle, etc.). I think the next move for Apple happens when OS X creates some excitement. As far as I can tell, its not out yet, and there isn't a date when one can confidentially say that it will come out. Till then, I think Apple can go lower. Milan