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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: globestocks who wrote (63480)	11/30/2000 7:51:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"People will buy whatever they feel is an appropriate price- and there sure ain't any fundamentals to that... " Problem, of course, is that people sometimes feel greed, sometimes fear, and some other times, utter paralysis.

To: globestocks who wrote (63480)	11/30/2000 8:08:52 PM
From: Stephen	Respond to of 99985

globestocks, its very difficult to apply shorter term investing rules to a market full of traders. In recent years, this has only been a game played by a wide range of speculators... and I'm not talking about retail traders. Nothings changed ... when its time for tech to come back the same people touting pharms will tell you Gateway is a buying opportunity and no longer a pure PC play. I guess this latest experience is a great advertisement for balanced portfolio's and dollar cost averaging for most investors. As for people buying at what they feel is an appropriate price ...well ... maybe 2% of them. The other 98% (like me) will just follow the herd and buy when there are signs it is the right thing to do. JMHO ... fwiw Stephen

To: globestocks who wrote (63480)	11/30/2000 8:42:09 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

You're referring to A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET by Burton Malkiel. Largely as a result of recent interchanges on this board, I took the time to read the book (along with a lot of other material on Random Walk theory and related issues). Malkiel doesn't really refute Keynes' main idea (which may really be more a formulation of a commonplace than a true theory). I would say he implicitly relies on it or at least the theme when it suits his larger purposes. He simply disagrees with and stubbornly argues against the idea that, over the long run, you can get anywhere by trying to get ahead of other people's castle-conjurings (and castle-crashings). Here and elsewhere, Malkiel seems to take pleasure in knocking down simplistic straw man arguments in favor of technical AND fundamental analysis. Both his work, which is aimed at the average would-be investor, as well as the more sophisticated academic literature have, however, helped to inspire useful re-consideration of many widely held concepts in technical analysis and trading.