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Technology Stocks : For Hedge Fund Analysts and Managers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizard who wrote (410)	12/1/2000 12:08:25 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 499

the "market" (filled mostly with morons lemmings and almost completely lacking in original thought) has been completely spooked by the confluence of three terrifying but easy to anticipate events in "tech" 1) the end of the computer era and the maturation of computing oriented applications 2) the end of round one of the dot.com bubble, the easy ecommerce applications financed to go public with no orientation towards creation of lasting economic value 3) the rapid decay in profitability of the voice service providers who then signal it's over for cap ex. no one bothers to realize that the nuance in cap ex such as the mix between circuit and packet and the proportion of spending on personnel and real estate as opposed to digital packet spending actually matters. yet for some reason, companies that are creating private b2b exchanges or helping to redesign the supply and demand chain can't hire enough personnel to deal with the record busting growth or demand....and these new applications combined with radical new consumer apps bust the network pipe in so many places there's still a buildout that will take years to complete. cisco builds inventory to cope with accelerating demand and quite a few companies report 30% sequential with book to bill ratios above 1.2 and they collapse in value because the analysts have less courage than bill clinton filling out a draft registration form? to be honest wiz, i was bored to death over the summer, "is it this easy" I thought to myself, what am i going to do in retirement? you know I'm long term oriented and the damage the market's done to me short term, but, I'm coming in to work energized for the first time in a long time. Our wall of shame is getting filled with analyst reports lately. I love to see the weak hands crushed as they push through the exit. I can't tell if it's over, we're seeing mutual fund redemptions and other stuff....but I'm kind of giddy to buy 3 to 5 year sustainable growth north of 80% for pe ratios of 35 to 50..... now we get to separate the wheat from the chad (uh, chaff) WAHOOOOOO!!! td