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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (21238)	11/30/2000 10:00:38 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Goutma,re: <Hmmm...you are over stretching the analyst's comment - ....> Yep, I put together a WHOLE lot of stuff on the subject, then decided I'd rather watch the game than check and cross check it. There's three things that can be screwed up. the Yields, the Mfg. Capacity ramp, or the date of announcements. This whole line came out of the register story, followed by the analyst story, followed by AMD going from 20 to 15. I've been in AMD before when it did this kind of stuff and eventually Sanders said 'We broke the part', but that was two years later! Now, did the analyst say <"manufacturing problems" with a new cpu>, or did the analyst say <"manufacturing problems with a new cpu">. Can you give me the story in clear text or a URL? They are completely different. As you stated it,(The first case), the problems may have nothing to do with the new cpu, but their manufacturing processes are in major problems. in the second case the problems are with the new cpu. I am just looking for data. I'm not trying to stretch anything. But as I fail to get data you can bet your ballz that my questions are going to get more strident. Like: Tony, On what date did the 2Mth Dresden Production Athlon ship? AMD statements have said that Dresden has 80% yield at 1Ghz. That is 80% of what? AMD has said that yield at Dresden is better than yield at FAB25. That's an interesting point. At FAB25 they produce CPUS & other stuff, but they cranked out at least 4 times as many CPUs last quarter at fab25 as did fab30. What is the CPU wafer start ratio? Is CPU production on target for the 8.5 to 9M that were scheduled for completion from Dresden in 4Q00? When do you expect all CPU wafer starts to be in Dresden? Etc! Can you be of any assistance? (Please note, this stuff is all off the top of my head and is not to be considered factual, I'll work on facts over the weekend. Call it a 'Story line'.) tgptndr

To: Goutam who wrote (21238)	11/30/2000 10:23:24 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 275872

Goutama and all, An article from the TSC that I thought you would find interesting! ____________________________________________________________ One Big Investor Might Have Special Cause to Worry: Intel By Caroline Humer Senior Writer 11/30/00 7:03 PM ET Add Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news) to the list of investments that may suffer twice as the bottom falls out of the stock market. As the Nasdaq spirals downward, retail and institutional investors are checking out their portfolios, trying to figure out how much they've lost in stocks like Intel and Gateway (GTW:NYSE - news). But companies with large investment portfolios are doing the same thing, assessing how their own holdings have been hit by the 29% drop in the Nasdaq Composite so far this quarter. Gateway, for instance, said Wednesday it would write off $200 million in investments. And Salomon Smith Barney on Tuesday reduced its earnings estimates for Chase (CMB:NYSE - news), lopping $300 million off the market value of its private-equity portfolio. Now Wall Street is wondering if Intel will be the next company to discover its wallet isn't as full as it was only two months ago. Risk Dan Niles, an analyst at Lehman Brothers, says there's clearly a risk for Intel, which books its profits generated from stock sales under gains on investments, interest and other income. Intel includes this income in its earnings per-share numbers, and it fought hard last year for analysts to include the gains in their earnings estimates. (Analysts typically exclude gains and charges from their estimates.) Last quarter, for instance, Intel booked $716 million in gains on investments and $250 million in interest and other income, and in the previous quarter that number was a total of $2.3 billion. (Lehman downgraded its rating on Intel Thursday to outperform from buy, and the firm hasn't performed recent underwriting for the company.) Intel's stock fell 11% today. "Obviously for any of these quarters, there could be a risk to gains on investments. They are like any other fund manager," Niles said. In this environment, Intel Capital, which runs Intel's two funds that contain its vast holdings, could sell some of its stock if it thinks the losses have gotten too extreme, could sell more than expected to come up with the figure it has held out to Wall Street, or hold on to the stocks in hopes of a long-term rebound. Intel spokesman Robert Manetta says the company hasn't changed its guidance from the $950 million in investment gains, interest and other income it estimated in mid-October that it would book during the fourth quarter. About three-quarters of that will come from investments, Lehman's Niles estimates. For next year, Niles' estimates still include about $2.8 billion on gains in investments for the year, or about 27 cents a share on total earnings of $1.65 a share. Vast Holdings Intel's two funds own pieces of private companies, as well as stocks in more than 500 publicly traded companies. The venture was started about 10 years ago to make strategic investments in companies -- often prior to their initial public offerings -- that have products and services that fit with Intel's own business. So, many of the company's investments are in tech names traded on the Nasdaq -- the same ones that have gotten so beaten up lately. "Our reason for investing and our reason for disposing of a holding, either partly or wholly, is based on strategic reasons," Manetta said. Because Intel got in before the IPO in some cases, it could still be ahead despite a sharp decline in the stocks. So far this quarter, regulatory filings show that Intel has reduced holdings in at least four different companies, with the largest sales being in Linux operating-system server maker VA Linux (LNUX:Nasdaq - news) and fiber-optic product company New Focus (NUFO:Nasdaq - news). New Focus shares have fallen 78% this quarter, while VA Linux is down 81%. It's unclear what Intel may have gained or lost on those sales because the company doesn't release what it initially paid for stakes. Unlike Chase, Intel doesn't include in its bottom line unrealized gains or losses, which reflect the gains or losses in market value of the securities it holds. But Intel's balance sheet will show at the end of this quarter how much the value of its investments has declined. At September's end, Intel's portfolio was worth $5.86 billion, $4.55 billion of which was in marketable securities, or securities the company could sell. Gateway's $200 million charge was designed to cover the losses associated with its investments in technology companies. But Gateway's overall investments aren't much of a guide for Intel. As of Sept. 30, Gateway's marketable securities alone were valued at about $133 million, only a fraction of Intel's portfolio.