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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gone to Money Heaven who wrote (36899)	11/30/2000 10:25:08 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

That's close enough for a kick to the upside, but not for a bottom. The dollar index is down a tad over 2% since the 28th ( 2 days) that means that foreigners are seeing us fall at a faster rate than we see it. The 500 has dropped 10% in two days in their eyes and the Nasdaq almost 20%.. And thats catch 22 as we could see a very short rally.. if the dollar keeps falling and they panic. Every one seems to think if Spam cuts rates the market will go up like magic, they have short memories..he had to cut 3 times in 98 before the slide stopped. The first cut don't do shit but kill the dollar and foreigners bail. Note the rally today was late ( after London and such closed ) If the dollar keeps falling foreigners will sell into any rallies we have. It's no longer a what can I buy thing as much as "how can I get out" Also some of the support the techs got late in the day came from "the so called defensive stocks" Rotation of that sort in a down market never works out in the longer run. It takes "new" money to stop a down trend not a rob Peter to pay Paul. Stocks will go down of their own weight without new money. Jim PS I'm not a total bear ( I bought some CPQ today at 18.75 ) and I was bidding the QQQ at 60-1/4 ( for a flip ) but I didn't get any. Jim

To: Gone to Money Heaven who wrote (36899)	12/1/2000 9:30:30 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 42787

I took another look at that VIX and it could be good for a cigar. The Vix in my opinion reacts to stock prices more than effecting them and this reaction is a sentiment indicator which goes to extremes both ways. An arbitrary number such as I used ( 35 ) for the sake of a round figure is not what I really use. Some fixed number based on past numbers can be misleading. It's relative to the OEX and the OEX has the top 100 stocks in it from both the NYSE and Nasdaq.. But back to it's relative number what I do is divide the OEX by the VIX, this makes an inverted graph Ie if the OEX 700/ VIX 35 = 20..which is bullish the inverted oex/vix looks opposite on a chart where a low is bullish and high bearish. Here again you can't fix a set point and the more you go back the more it may mislead , the best bet is to use the last deep low & high. It is just a sentiment indicator and needs to be confirmed with some other indicators. In other words it's not something to make a bet on unless you see supporting evidence in other areas But just the same it did indicate some very bearish sentiment yesterday ( which is bullish ) OEX/VIX went as low as 20..the last time it got that low the OEX was 800 / Vix 40..so you can see that just where the OEX is also relative to the bigger picture. had the OEX 700 / vix 40 we would have got a low of 17.5 and I don't have any thing in its recent history of going that low. In fact that 20 looks good. If we are not at a bottom we should be close. However I've thought that each time we made a new low since May and it's fooled me so I'm a bit gun shy right now. Jim PS I will not chase any gap ups, they will likely back fill ( in time )..and if we do get a strong rally leaving a gap UP I'll be looking for a place to short it. If it goes on up it needs to fill all gaps on the way to hold. Hmmm Let me add that the gap up this morning may just be canceling the gap down we had yesterday so it don't really count as a GAP up in the absolute sense.