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To: Mephisto who wrote (120042)	12/1/2000 7:26:46 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Mephisto, re: "Unfortunately, many market analysts are unable to differentiate the dram makers from those semi-players that do not make chips for the old fashion PCs. I think this could be one reason why there has been so much confusion in the semi-conductor industry. On the other hand, a few market analysts have recently recognized that the old fashion toys will have to compete with the new fashion toys this Christmas and down the road as well." The old fashioned toy, the PC, has been growing at an average rate of ~17% a year for many years. The period from mid year '99 through the second quarter of '00 was exceptionally strong, so we were due for a weaker period. And I'm sure that thousands of IT managers around the world will be interested to hear that a PC is a "toy", they probably thought they were buying productivity tools. As for the new fashion toys, I agree that they are taking dollars from PC's in the consumer space. The problem is, almost all of them use flash memory, and as a holder of several flash memory stocks, I've sort of noticed that those stocks are dropping like a rock thrown off a very tall building. It seems that regardless of how many new products are coming to market, the analysts, and large investors, assume that capacity is going to be larger than demand, so the products will become commodities with lousy gross margins. Let's get constructive, what semiconductor stocks do you recommend to take advantage of these new toys? John

To: Mephisto who wrote (120042)	12/1/2000 10:26:21 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: it is unlikely that I will trade in my 10-year-old CPQ Presario with Windows 95 Well, if you live under a rock, and have no job or friends, that old Compaq will probably do the trick for you. But if you have any friends, co-workers, relatives, or even acquaintances who create documents in Office 97 or 2000, or who create digital photos or mpeg movies that they send to you, you'll need a new PC to see what you've been sent. :-) Dan