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To: byhiselo who wrote (42761)	12/1/2000 12:17:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

i agree, a big counter-trend rally is going to develop at some point...but like you say, it's hard to gauge from which level, and when. you may have noticed, various sentiment polls show another big increase in the bullish consensus (i.e. the consensus that we must rally because we're so oversold...), so perhaps things will get real dicey before a bottom can be put in. no way to tell for sure though...we have potential rally catalysts dead ahead, like the Supreme Court decision for instance. the biggest potential problem i see is the above mentioned total lack of fear...beats me completely why that persists to such a degree. of course we have to keep in mind, bullish people are usually fully invested...otherwise they wouldn't be bullish. those are all potential sellers, not buyers. that said, we bounced off the 50% retrace of the entire NAZ bull market and are certainly oversold by many traditional measures, especially in tech. we're also pretty close to the point where the Nikkei analogy argues for a rally to develop...however, if the analogy continues to hold, 3,000 will be the barrier to that rally...the level from which this summer's suckers rally started. still, that would be worth playing no doubt.